Lots of news focus on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Viet-Nam. Most of it seems to be on Trump/Putin talking and what will come of that.
I am more interested on any one-on-one meeting between Trần Đại Quang and Xi Jinping. Will they bury the hatchet on what the Viets call Biển Đông (East Sea) and the Chinese call their South Sea? Same for any meets between Xi and President Duterte, Prime Minister Najib of Malaysia, and the Sultan of Brunei. And what is Trump's position on the Spratly and Paracel Islands? Did he use his 'art of the deal' when he was in Peking to offer Xi something he could not refuse?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_Vietnam_2017#Attendees
But in any case I'm happy that Donnie finally made it to Viet-Nam. I suppose his heel spurs have been cured. Looks like they are staying here:
http://www.danang.intercontinental.com/
Better quarters than what we had 50 years ago at LZ Baldy or Charlie Ridge.
The Viets gain nothing from trying to get involved in a sea war in Asia...with the PLAN and the PLAF, anyway, that will pretty much wipe the ocean with the supposedly-decent-but-small VPN. I expect that the DRVN will reach some sort of accommodation with the PRC that cedes the Chinese the notional "sovereignty" over the South China Sea while providing something to the Vietnamese, perhaps some limited access to the petroleum fields southwest of Hainan Island?
ReplyDeleteAs far as Five-Deferment Donnie, at least one observer was utterly unimpressed at his puppy-like eagerness to roll over in hopes that Xi would scritch his widdle tum-tum: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2017/11/weak_and_clueless_trump_is_the_american_president_of_chinese_dreams.html
My guess is that the tangerine toddler didn't have any real idea what he "wanted" out of this meeting other than some sort of head-fake towards his feud with "Little Rocket Man" (which the Chinese will be happy to make...just so long as they don't have to, y'know, actually DO anything...) and some sort of "trade deal" (which the Chinese finessed by tossing him some tidbits like the GE, Dow, and Smithfield contracts without making any real attempt to make any sort of real structural adjustments to the relationship).
What I love about this (in an awful, horrified,"WTF?" kind of way) is how these governments have learned exactly how to spin this doof. The utterly perfect thing is the PRC, which threw him a military parade so he could strut on the reviewing stand imagining being Patton or something...as he watched Chinese troops and tanks pass in review.
Chinese.
Troops.
And the dumb fucker never got why he should have been furious.
FDChief -
ReplyDeleteI agree that the Viets will not try to get in another war with China. But things sometimes tend to get out of hand. And the Viets remember bitterly that China has invaded their country at least seven times precipitating 23 wars/rebellions between the two countries.
Southwest of Hainan??? That area is the Gulf of Tonkin, long recognized as being under Hanoi's sovereignty. Viet-Nam still maintains troops on several of the Spratlys despite China's 'Great Wall of Sand'. I believe they will defend them if attacked.
As for Donny Darko, he is getting his share plus more of flattery from Asian leaders. They have seen through him pretty quickly.
Meanwhile bone-spurs Donny on the anniversary of Armistice Day, AKA Veteran's Day, or Remembrance Day trashes another highly decorated vet.
ReplyDeleteDuring Donny's time in the Nam may he come down with Amoebic dysentery, malaria, a heat rash so bad it turns into skin ulcers, tapeworms, malaria, and a host of agent orange complications.
Mike, a belated Happy Birthday, I missed posting on the tenth, did you celebrate?
DeleteIt IS Armistice day and shall be FALAIA. I'm going to get me a poppy boutoniere for next year ...... may even score me a poppy flag to hang outside, next to the garage door. The neighbors will probably think I'm into roses, or that I'm celebrating the War of the roses. Two of the former players of the Anaheim Ducks, Teemu Selanne and Paul Karya were inducted into the NHL Hall of Fame. They were wearing sports jackets, each with a poppy in their lapels. They know most of Americans don't, as is their habit. Well, gotta go. I am flying to Phoenix tonight to see the boy and his family. I will establish comms there. See Ya!
I can't see the VPN being able to defend any of the Spratly locations with any sort of success. But I also don't see how a bunch of random NVA grunts camped out on a sea-rock can do much to restrict PLAN movement in the SCS. So my guess is that the PRC just ignores them and both sides pretend they "won".
ReplyDeleteThe underreported development in Asia is the TPP going forward without the U.S. I'm not particularly arsed personally - I think the intellectual property and profits-over-regulation emphasis makes this an atrocity - but it does suggest that the Trumpkins are more focused on corrupt contract negotiations domestically rather than trade internationally (other than whatever graft they can reap there...) and that if the PRC can take advantage of that the Trumpkins won't fight them.
At least one observer considered this little junket an unmitigated disaster:
ReplyDeletehttp://theweek.com/articles/730047/trumps-disastrous-trip-asia
Eddie -
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you. Say hello to Arizona for me. I will probably try to get down there for a few months to escape the Great Western Washington Wet. But not Phoenix, too much like LA. And not til sometime after Thanksgiving.
We celebrated and cut the birthday cake Saturday night - after handing out poppies in front of the market during the day. At the ball I escorted a 96 year old WM who saw service in 44 & 45 in San Francisco expediting supplies to the Pacific. She got the first piece of cake. Said this was her first time dating a Marine. Back in Frisco the ones coming back from the jungles were a bit too wild for her. But she said that she and her girlfriends had fun helping sailors to spend their money. Must have been sand crab sailors, because my recollection is that sea-going squids were a hundred times wilder on liberty than us jarheads. So I told her the term 'drunk & disorderly' was invented for sailors in port? She just smiled - must have been a bit wild herself back in the day.
FDChief -
ReplyDeleteI agree with the Kazianis article you linked to. Trump seems to be a disaster wherever he goes.
And you are probably right about the Viets in the Spratlys. But if the Chinese do decide to take them out, I doubt they will go quietly. Looks like their navy shipping is mostly older USSR stuff, but they have recently received Russia's Improved Varshavyanka subs. I thought at one time they were going to get some Western-made or India-made subs, but that apparently did not go through.