Spot on predictions in 1970

In the late 60's, it was difficult for Aviators to advance beyond O-5, as the demands of Viet Nam and the Training Base precluded assignments in our Basic Branch that were necessary for advancement.  Being an Aviator was just a special skill identifier for officers in the various Branches.  As I have mentioned elsewhere, in 1969, CSA William Westmoreland decided that a shortfall in O-6 Aviators should be "cured" not by special instructions to promotion boards to advance highly qualified Aviators based in OERs and responsibility levels in lieu of "Branch Material" assignment, but to put 70 Colonels through Flight School.  Within the established Aviation community, we quietly referred to these Colonels as "Change of Life" or "Manopause" Aviators.  Some were quite good, and some were a farce.  I was an Instructor at Ft Wolters at the time, and chosen to instruct some of these Colonels.  Fortunately, the four assigned to me (two at a time) were first rate, and were very valuable mentors for learning the ins and outs of the rarefied air of DA and Army policy.  The second pair (both WWII, Korea and VN combat vets) were students when Nixon sent his Special Message to Congress on Draft Reform.

Shortly after the above message, after giving the two Colonels a Saturday morning tour of the maintenance facilities and fleet management operations for the School (we operated some 1,300 helicopters), one Colonel put on a barbeque for our families.  While gathered around the fire, beers in hand, the three of us began to discuss the President's plan.

Both COLs saw it as our "marching orders", and while they expressed their views on the future impact of an AVF, neither was judgmental.  Rather, they were looking at what they saw that leaders in the future would have to contend with.  Of course, none of us could predict the future conflicts our nation would be involved in, and most assuredly not the past 11 years.

First off, one COL addressed the magnitude of the opening round of increase in pay and benefits Nixon put on the table to be able to recruit and retain sufficient numbers of troops.  He predicted that the day would come when force structure will be significantly limited by personnel costs versus strategic needs. He also predicted that increasing pay would begin to cause an erosion in benefits, due to 1) the pay being seen as sufficient for the troops to do without subsidized benefits and 2) the burgeoning personnel costs of the AVF.

If we were going to pay "competitive"  wages that recruited and retained, the COL said, we would be locked into an ever increasing upward spiral.  When the economy is strong, higher wages will be needed, but when the economy is weak, there would be no way to decrease wages.  Thus, from a "market standpoint", the odds are that DOD would be always paying a premium wage.  And his prediction was pretty much spot on.

We have seen the force structure limits of personnel costs.  Rumsnamara vigorously fought end strength increases to preserve funds for fancy hardware, without regard to the impact it was having on the troops who had to face repetitive tours in hostile fire zones.  And, we are again trimming back end strength to meet funding constraints, while pay increases are suggested to be seriously capped for the next few years.  The payroll tab is just too high.

One benefit which he saw as being "fragile" was our newly received CHAMPUS (1966) which was the very first national program of civilian health care funding for dependents and retirees.  We are all aware of the various proposals floating to shift more of the cost of TRICARE (CHAMPUS' descendant) onto retirees, no less active duty dependents.

Another was retiree pay.  Since 1980, there have a couple of pieces of legislation to try to bring down pension costs, not the least of which was the recent attempt to cap COLA prior to age 62 for currently serving and retired personnel.  Congress has been basically schizoid about pension computation.  Do you reduce the pension tab and hinder retention?  So far, they have been very reluctant to find out.  The one attempt to seriously reduce pension rates, REDUX in 1986, didn't last long, and was made effectively voluntary, drawing few takers.  Another decrease in pension liabilities took place when military pay increases were spread across base pay, meals and quarters allowances, versus solely on base pay.  That took the portion added to allowances out of the pension computation.

While it wasn't a major personnel cost in 1970, Housing Allowances in subsequent years rose dramatically to match the average community rental costs plus insurance and utilities.  This year, they are being scaled back a fair bit.

Additionally, that COL saw various appropriated fund (tax supported) activities being shifted to non-appropriated (no tax support) status as well as commissaries coming under attack.  Again, spot on.

On a "lighter note" he also foresaw base closures for cost savings that would reduce the number of "enjoyable duty stations", no less result in fewer opportunities for "compassionate assignments", thus reducing the "attractiveness" of military service, which would only raise the costs of recruiting and retention.  We have seen several BRAC rounds, and DOD is now pleading with a highly reluctant Congress for more.

After all has been said and done, it has been end strength that has been the major tool in keeping personnel costs and thus DOD costs down, and there are definitely limits to end strength reductions if you wish to have a standing military of any capability.  So, where does DOD go from here?


However, it was the other COL who raised the most interesting notion.  In 1970, junior enlisted and junior officers looking forward to "getting out" was an every day occurrence that had been in place for 25 years.  After all, the draftee or three year enlistee was definitely going to be able to earn more on the outside, as would, most likely, the first tour Lieutenant.  Turn over was a natural course of military life.  Would a well paid AVF result in greater pressure to stay in, both in terms of finances and peer pressure?  What would be the psychological impact of such pressure to stay in on an all volunteer population versus a draft motivated population?  (BTW, it was from these two COLs that I first heard the term "draft motivated military").

It is this last question that intrigues me, as along with the pressures suggested by the COL, another new factor arose, that of long term assignments to the same unit.  In the Army, the same groups have been rotating into and out of Iraq and Afghanistan, pretty much together, for 10 years.  Has a notion of "responsibility" to one's comrades pressured Soldiers to remain in service even when they would prefer to do otherwise?  Are the combined uncertainties of civilian life and a sense of loyalty to one's fellow soldiers placing a new stress on AVF troops that wasn't there before?  Added to that is the impact of "Stop Loss" extending ETS dates, making another tour overseas guaranteed for many troops.  Does that further raise the pressure to just "stay in" after returning to CONUS?  Have we effectively created a personnel "meat grinder", and has this "meat grinder" contributed to PTSD rates?  Are there a significant number of troops who feel that there is effectively no "escape" without "turning on their comrades"?

I don't pretend to know the answer to the "stress" questions, but I do think they are in play.  Have we painted ourselves into both a fiscal and psychological stress corner?   Can we attempt to be a "world class military" power without breaking the bank in both fiscal and personnel terms?  Has our love affair with military adventures gone too far?  Is anyone even asking these questions or just accepting unchallenged "givens"?

BTW, the one issue I do not recall being discussed was an increased reliance on women in the military!