Friday, July 31, 2009

It's always darkest just before everything goes completely black.

And when you think it couldn't get any more ridiculous...

...there's this.

Hey, I'm a patriotic American and, as such and as advised by my news organs, elected representatives and other Real Americans in the Talk Radio profession, love and revere my President as a living God. But...but...

Bud Light? Fucking Bud LIGHT? Not even the regular Spudwiser but the LIGHT version of this weak-ass high school keg party piss?

Mine Leader, Bud Light is Satan's cloudy urine. It is to be avoided as an occasion of Sin, and shunned like the anathema it is, fit only for aphasic octogenarians and incontinent small boys. Would The Father of Our Country asked for a Bud Light? Honest Abe? FDR?

My country, my country...I am speechless with grief.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

You say you want a revolution...

...you might start with the geniuses currently in charge of our foreign policy.

Mike Gordon of the New York Times reviews a memo written by the O-6 currently responsible for what in former times would have been called "Military Assistance Command, Baghdad". In this document, the colonel says that "...the Iraqi forces suffer from deeply entrenched deficiencies (including corruption, poor management and the inability to resist political pressure from Shiite political parties) but are now capable of protecting the Iraqi government, and that it is time “for the U.S. to declare victory and go home."

The author of the memo, one COL Reese, goes on to reveal some shocking Secret Truths About Iraq: that the Iraqis don't like having a bunch of heavily armed foreigners wallying about their country, that they are increasingly cool towards us and show a stunning willingness to catch-and-release their countrymen who are guilty of doing nothing more than attacking the American occupiers.Of course, the PAO for the Desert Bull, LTG Ray Odierno, CIC of the No-Longer-Multinational-Force-Iraq, says that
“The e-mail reflects one person’s personal view at the time we were first implementing the Security Agreement post-30 June. It does not reflect the official views of U.S. Forces in Iraq. Since that time many of the initial issues have been resolved and our partnerships with Iraqi Security Forces and G.O.I. partners now are even stronger than before 30 June.”
Suuuuure they are.

What was it Kipling said about the fool who tried to hustle the East?

Update 7/31: Here's an example of the crack Iraqi forces, in this case, taking down the MEK camp at "Camp Ashraf".Jesus wept!

I sure to hell wish I hadn't been on sick call that day we got the frigging "Death Race 2000" bloc of instruction on how to handle civilian rebels. What are these gomers, nuts? Good job, MAC-I. You've trained these goobers to the peak of...WTF???

And when does the revolution start???

Sometimes I would rather remain ignorant...and yet the truth is not considerate of m
y inclinations.../sigh...[inputing fix for link, thanks for the catch Ael!] Read it and weep...
Update: Apparently the link isn't working, but just so you get an idea...it's from the Bloomberg site, Karen Freifeld's update #4, "Banks Paid $32.6 Billion in Bonuses Amid U.S. Bailout" with the key graph...

"The top 200 bonus recipients at JPMorgan Chase & Co. received $1.12 billion last year, while the top 200 at Goldman received $995 million. At Merrill the top 149 received $858 million and at Morgan Stanley, the top 101 received $577 million. Those 650 people received a combined $3.55 billion, or an average of $5.46 million."

That would be your tax dollars...hard at work...making the "rich richer, and the everyday Joe and Jane that much poorer."

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Strategy . . .

To start with I would like to thank those who posted on my preceding strategic theory thread, your comments have started a ball rolling here and this is the first if limited response. Over the years I’ve attempted to create a dialogue on strategic theory and have been assisted by capable interlocutors who may not have agreed with my position, but were patient and thoughtful enough to hear me out. I think we all share the desire to understand the current strategic situation the United States, and the West in general, finds itself in and wish that strategic theory be a clear and capable tool in this regard. Over the years I have benefited from discussions and comments from Andreas Herberg-Rothe, Chris Bassford, Chet Richards, Fitch O’Connell, Thomas Huynh, on Chicagoboyz (where I was part of a roundtable discussion on Clausewitz) and of course from my fellow bloggers here at MilPub.

What I am attempting with this post is to discuss the concept of strategy and contrast it a bit with strategic theory, but focusing more on how our concept of strategy is inseparable (or was) from certain concepts popularized by Clausewitz and others. I’ll attempt to connect this with certain changes that have taken place in US strategy formulation, or rather what passes today for strategy. Finally I’ll put this within a larger perspective of language and how it reflects a specific culture and changes in that culture.

How to start? When we think of the word “strategy” two related activities come to mind, the first planning – usually more long-term - followed by execution.

Webster’s defines strategy as “a plan of action encompassing the methods to be adopted from beginning to end of a task or endeavor, focussing on the general methods; contrasted with tactics, which is a plan for accomplishing subgoals of lesser extent than the primary goal. Thus, a strategy is a plan for winning a war, and a tactic is a plan for winning a battle.” Here we have the contrast of strategy and tactics which is important.

It is important to consider that words do in fact have meanings, contrary to the experiences of the last eight years in the US, that in times past they were considered to actually influence behaviour, that is influence how we acted in a complex world. The US has had, since the Truman Administration, a government body which is specifically tasked with analysing threats, considering policies and formulating strategy as defined above. The Joint Chiefs of Staff are part of this body – The National Security Council - and have no command authority precisely for this reason, they are to advise and provide the military’s role in strategy formulation, especially the connection between political purpose and military aim – more on this below - arguing when necessary that no connection exists, but do not actually command the troops in the field which is left to the civilian commander in chief.

Returning to our definition of strategy, there are still some important points missing, especially if we limit our definition of strategy to the implementation of state policy specifically (as in the NSC) and not just any plan of action.

Some time back on Thomas Huynh’s site a thread on defining strategy in one phrase came up. My definition was “focused adaptation over time in reference to a purpose through methodological theoretical construct” which sounds a bit intimidating and confused, but puts the elements I wished to in place, especially contingency and adaptation. There is also the implied distinction between praxis and theory since the adaptation is conducted “through a theoretical construct”. This need not be the case, one could simply do strategy as in praxis alone as the ancient Greeks saw it when they developed these various concepts: “strategia” being simply the conduct of the “strategos” or army commander. For Clausewitz as well, the military genius operates outside the realm of theory in dealing with the specific character of the conflict in question. Theory provides more a way of looking at the problem and a language for discussing/analyzing it. Here I’m referring to theory as aid to ongoing strategy, not theory as a means of historical analysis, or critique, which is something else altogether.

To tie together and expand on my definition and launch this post properly let’s proceed with a clearer and longer definition/description from Hew Strachan. This article is btw worth a careful read:

Strategy, as opposed to strategic theory, has two principal tasks. The first is to identify the nature of the war at hand. A misidentification is pregnant with consequences: it would be just as mistaken to fight a major war on the assumption that it is a smaller, more limited war, as the other way round. Moreover, what begins as one sort of war can turn into another. Recognising and understanding the nature of a war is a constant interrogative process, and one where strategic theory comes into play, not just something to be undertaken at the outset. The second task, once the nature of a war has been plumbed, is to manage the war and direct it. It is perfectly possible for the policymakers of one belligerent to decide to escalate a war, to make a local conflict into a global one. But neither common sense nor common humanity suggests that that is very sensible.

Strategy and the Limitation of War, 2008

You will notice that this definition sees a very close interplay between strategy and strategic theory, which is by definition here Clausewitzian strategic theory, or more specifically Clausewitz’s general theory of war. The first question deals with the complex and dynamic nature of war, so we require a theory that deals with this nature, defines it in some intelligible and useful way. If we do not see war has having any nature or a whole range of unrelated natures that are subjective and related to cultural proclivities, then strategic theory as an aide to strategy becomes very problematic. In fact strategy as commonly defined, or as approached in Strachan’s quote would not exist.

Strategy in this view concerns a balance of political purpose, military aim and military/political means connected in harmony and blending into one another. Strategy in other words is simply the application of military/political means in support of a military aim which instrumentally provides the situation where the political purpose can be achieved, this is the basic concept behind the establishment of the NSC in the late 1940s. Seen another way strategy works in tactical ways to achieve the means (military victory) for political ends. The goal of tactics is military victory, whereas the goal of strategy is the return to peace with the political purpose fulfilled. Thus strategic theory provides the fundamental elements of strategy, the language of strategy so to speak, defines the various elements and describes how they are related.

Without this strategic theory, strategy becomes simply a wishlist of goals disassociated from the nature of war, or a question of capabilities (or tactics) operating against identified target sets (but in essentially a political vacuum). What this all assumes is the unlimited capability for humans to change not only their physical, but social environment.

Ron Suskind documented this attitude clearly in his article, "Without a Doubt":

In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn't like about Bush's former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend -- but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency.

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." [my emphasis]

Who besides guys like me are part of the reality-based community? Many of the other elected officials in Washington, it would seem. A group of Democratic and Republican members of Congress were called in to discuss Iraq sometime before the October 2002 vote authorizing Bush to move forward. A Republican senator recently told Time Magazine that the president walked in and said: "Look, I want your vote. I'm not going to debate it with you." When one of the senators began to ask a question, Bush snapped, "Look, I'm not going to debate it with you."

Here we see that our traditional views of strategy and strategic theory were about limits, about the limits of humans to influence their own environment and how intentions – no matter how noble – could have totally unforeseen consequences. Strategy, going back to its Greek roots was firmly related to the basic tragic nature of human existence. It should also be noted here that for Thucydides, the break down of language, as in the meanings of words, reflected political turmoil (see Chapter 3 of link).

We see that the new concept of strategy is quite different and reflects profound political and cultural changes which have taken place even if they remain unacknowledged.

From what has been presented so far, I can develop a list of assumptions we have from the earlier concept of strategy and what it can tell us about US policy since 2001:

First, war has a complex and dynamic nature that is common to all wars. War is part of political intercourse, politics defined (following Max Weber) as “striving to share power or striving to influence the distribution of power, either among states or among groups within a state”. Notice that we can replace “state” with “political community” or even “family” and this definition for politics would still apply. Weber’s definition for power is "the probability that one actor in a social relationship will be in a position to carry out his will despite resistance, regardless of the basis on which this probability rests". Notice, there is a close similarity between “power” and “war” in that war is also defined as imposing our will on the enemy through organized violence. Using a metaphor to explain the subordination of war to politics, if we compare political relations to the weather, war would be violent weather, but not all weather.

Second, and this being a natural result of the first, changes in political conditions provide for changes in the nature of war. Each war is thus going to be unique, but still recognizable in terms of the complex nature that all wars share. Once again it is the assumed existence of this shared nature that makes not only strategy, but strategic theory possible. In addition, if one assumes that the nature of war has changed significantly, look to the changed political conditions between the hostile communities as to the basis for this change. Change can come from other sources – tactics, technology, psychology of specific leaders, new ideas – but will always take place within a specific political context. As Clausewitz tells us, it is within the context of the relationships between political communities that the embryo of war forms.

Third, war commences with the action of the defender. An aggressor achieving his goals without resistance is not war, nor is the aggressor slaughtering unarmed civilians, war starts when the defender resists. The attacker has the positive goal of conquering the defender, imposing his will, whereas the defender need only deny the attack his goal (a negative purpose) in order to win. An insurgency or guerrilla group need no political program beyond the defeat of the occupying force, that is the restoration of the status quo ante (however defined).

Fourth, strategy assumes a close interaction between tactics and strategy, the tactics used being supportive of the achievement of the military aim (military victory) which provides the means for the strategic aim (achievement of the political purpose and the return to peace). Success at the tactical level can lead to strategic success providing that the military aim supports the political purpose, but strategic confusion negates tactical success, while strategic clarity can compensate for tactical inadequacy.

Fifth, since not all politics is war, not all policy can be achieved through military means. Some policy goals are not achievable by military means in any way, rather are subverted and made impossible by the use of organized violence. This is the question for the political leadership to decide, does the political purpose lend itself to a military solution, or is this approach counter-productive? Obviously if the decision for war is based more on interest and opportunity than a threat assessment, this will influence planning. Also if the language used by the strategic culture in question requires a certain structure of discourse - the use of certain terms which may not fit the new political realities will only confuse the issue. The language itself can cease to have meaning.

Sixth, strategy assumes that there is an enemy or opposition which is human and interacts with our side over time, that is war as a conflict of opposing human wills. One cannot wage war against a “method” (Terrorism or Counter-Insurgency) or abstract concepts (Evil). Rather, such rhetoric obscures the actual political purpose and can confuse those tasked with implementing military strategy. Furthermore the character of the attacker's political purpose influences the level of resistance the enemy employs. A limited purpose would call on limited sacrifice, whereas a totally radical purpose, say the redefinition of the enemy's political identity would provoke extreme resistance and would demand of the attacker the dedication of significant moral and physical resources.

Seventh, each war is distinct. A war in one theater of operations must be handled as a separate war regardless of the fact that the same military is involved in both. Conflating regional conflicts into a global struggle confuses the issue and creates links which do not correspond to reality. Notice how this assumption is linked to five above.

And finally, there is a distinction between “war” and “peace”. This goes back to Thomas Hobbes, who in Leviathan saw the human situation as being essentially violent chaos which was only ended by people ceding power to a sovereign who held the monopoly of legitimate violence within the demarcated physical area (which we could refer to as the state). Absent this political entity we have (civil) war, or interstate war should the political entity be in armed conflict with other political entities. So war is not so much the absence of peace, but the absence of order which precedes the establishment of political authority. This would cover political entities which have never been states.

Comments?

Thursday, July 23, 2009

There are some things that go beyond the pale


Since TPM has found the douchebag who released the pic I figure I might as well address it, too.
I'm deeply offended by this picture.
I seriously questioned myself about this, but I thought, "you know, this has to be addressed because this is so unfuckingbelievable that such blatant racism is pouring out of the Republican party's machine."
So, we had this debate, and finally, Scot, my coworker dropped the bomb...and what a beautiful bomb it was...so here, with his permission...I post for your enjoyment...
"It's interesting that we trust the government with guns, tanks, fighter jets, stealth bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and nuclear weapons but we don't trust them to run healthcare better than a bunch of corporations who have a profit motive in denying your healthcare benefits.
The oft-repeated refrain "you don't want a bunch of government bureaucrats making decisions about your healthcare coverage, do you?" seems to leave out the current reality that we have a bunch of bureaucrats working for FOR-PROFIT healthcare companies doing that already.
As Charles P. Pierce has pointed out:
"1) Any theory is valid if it moves units,
2) anything can be true if someone says it loudly enough,
3) fact is that which enough people believe; truth is measured by how fervently they believe it."
My how the Republican idiot squawk box is effective.
I suppose using a blatantly racist image juxtaposed with a hammer and sickle is good proof of that.
Besides, isn't socialized medical care better than none at all?
If we think of Medicare as a model of an OPTIONAL government run program, consider these survey results:
22 percent of the privately insured people found that their plan did not pay for care that they thought was covered, compared to 9 percent of elderly Medicare beneficiaries
9 percent of the privately insured people had difficulty getting a referral to a specialist, compared to 2 percent of elderly Medicare beneficiaries
Medicare beneficiaries were one-third as likely to report access problems such as not visiting a doctor when needed, not getting recommended specialist care, skipping recommended test or follow-up as those covered by employer plans.
Medicare beneficiaries were twice as likely to be very confident in their ability to get care in the future as those covered by employer plans.
33 percent of privately insured people were unable to pay their bills or had been contacted by a collection agency, compared to 18 percent of elderly Medicare beneficiaries.

Yeah, it would really suck to have the government make healthcare more affordable, more reliable and more accountable to consumers.
I can see why people are so mad at Obama.

--Scott"


Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Canary, meet Coal Mine.

Somewhat lost in the federal health care/war funding/global warming/wise Latina raree show was the sad little, noxious little budget deal worked out in California this Monday.It has to say something about who we Americans are and what we're becoming that the best idea that the Golden State's best and brightest (okay, we'll exempt Da Governator from that, but, still, We the People of California elected his Austrian ass) could come up with to "balance" the state budget was to rob their own counties and municipalites blind, to kick the poor and sick in the crotch, and to cut nonessentials like teachers, garbagemen, cops, paramedics and highway maintenence workers (in the state that practically invented Car Culture, no less...).

You can read all about it in the linked LA Times editorial, but even that supposedly liberal news organ seems to have developed collective amnesia about a couple of salient points.

1. The "we're broke, we just don't have any money, we HAVE to cut your food stamps (AFDC, Head Start, fill-in-the-blank...) or die, you silly Negroes..." meme goes all the way back to the toxic little property tax time-bomb the California GOP wired up in 1978, Proposition 13. We here in Oregon then devised our own little suicide pact, Measure 5, clearly on the conviction that if California was going to be Tom Fool and lead the best plan for us was to be Jack Fool and follow.

The direct result of this was to save Ma and Pa Goober a couple of hundred dollars a year on their rancho deluxe out there near McMinnville while giving Pacific Gas and Electric, Flav-R-Pac, and Megacorp Development an immense windfall of untaxable largesse, which, of course, they immediately rushed out to donate to the widows, orphans, disabled, and mentally ill that the now-tax-strapped state government had to chuck off the welfare rolls and out of the state institutions, colleges and job training programs they could no longer fund, so that the poor devils didn't have to beg for change at the top of the on-ramps of the roads the state could no longer maintain.

Not.

2. California compounded their own stupidity by then crafting a 2/3rds supermajority rule for passing legislative revenue measures, which has effectively prevented the state from passing any NEW revenue measures since 1996.

I love this little cartoon because of what it says about the mindset of the people who are fond of this situation. The cartoonist wants us to see that the Republican elephant is a simple but wise old soul, doing his math like a good householder and making his expenditures meet his income, and the Democratic donkey is a maddened policy wonk, all goofy for taxing everything moving to fund kooky-spooky crunchy granola frills.

But the cute little exercise fails when you realize that Jumbo's "a = b" is a logical fallacy. "a" isn't "a", it's "x", and "b" is "y". The animals in the legislature can - unlike the prudent household - change their income and outlays to meet their needs. So, in a sense, it's the donkey's frantic figuring that represents what a real government has to do: try and figure out what it needs versus what it wants, and then what it can take in versus what it would like to take in. The elephant isn't being simply honest; he's being simpleminded, he's using an axe to craft a budget rather than a woodcarving tool. Which explains a LOT about how Republican "governance" has gotten us here.

And so, here we are.

Imagine a nation in which a small handful of wealthy people live a First World lifestyle.

Their homes are nicely maintained, their roads well paved, their neighborhoods patrolled by polite, competent, professional police officers. They and their neighbors get First World medical care in daintily appointed medical clinics, shop at the best locations, dine, party, work and generally live as well as any human society in the 21st Century can arrange.

Then imagine that the bulk of the nation lives in precarious, decaying cities, towns and countrysides, prey to the collapsing, badly maintained public roads, buildings and utilities around them. Their lives are made more random by the capricious nature of their public "servants": seldom present and, when appearing, typically bribeable or even worse, merely indifferent. A fraying middle class lives squeezed between the wealthy, who despise them and the poor, who envy and hate them. Their political power is notional, their involvement in their own government negligible, they are useful only as fodder for the wealthy.

But you don't have to imagine this. All you have to do is travel south, east or west, to find dozens of impoverished Third World nations where this condition is the standard. Every craptacular little dictatorship or oligarchy the U.S. Army helped me vacation in, from Panama to Egypt and points between, featured this vast disparity between the rulers and the ruled. This wasn't a bug; it was a feature.Democracy cannot exist in a feudal society. It dies, or is killed, by the desperation, foolishness and ignorance of the peasants and the greed, venality and indifference of the nobles.

California has now chosen, rather than to even mildly discommode the wealthy, to disadvantage the disadvantaged. Rather than even attempt to close the gap between the rulers and the ruled, it chooses to allow the public weal to fall victim to private wealth.

There is a name for this sort of system.

But "republican", it's not.

Ever since the Elevation of Saint Ronnie, our public discourse has been dominated by the idea that "taxes are bad". In this sense, the conservatives that lost the Battle of Watergate won the larger war. They wanted to concentrate power in the nation's elite, and, largely, they have. They wanted to move the nation's laws - if they could not move the nation's people - to the right and, largely, they have.Well, California has reached the conservative state of grace; the state, and those in the care of the state, now exist to serve the needs of the wealthy. We shall see if the result is beneficial for the state and her people as a whole. We shall see.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

How Did I Get Here?


Normandy Sailing, Leroy Neiman

Men are disturbed not by things,

but by the view which they take of the
m
--Epictetus

________________

Lisa's bio: How did I get here?

First, allow me to say I am pleased this project has grown in the ashes of the old IntelDump. Perusing Phil Carter's
last post at the WaPo [23 April], I found the following typical gem from friend "fasteddiez" (Arrabiato was one of the hapless commenters):

Phil:

RE: the cost of success

At least with the old "Intel Dump" crowd, inbred, foul mouthed, etc. as it was/is, you did not have to deal with the kind of Drool Cuppers you now seem to host here. "Arrabiato"? is that some kind of coffee? Is it served in a silver drool cup?

As ZZ Top said, You're Bad, You're Nationwide! It does not seem to be cost free, however.

That spirit is what we are after. To me: I've not been in the military, don't know strategy or tactics, yet I have landed among some really fine military thinkers through the magnanimity of our barkeep. It is serendipity for a military groupie, but how did I become one?

Blame it on an eccentric mother, psychological glitches and Larry Burrows.

The explanation does not reside with my father, who is from a long lineage of conscientious objectors (his father deserted the Russian army.) But members of mom's family have served honorably in all military engagments up through Korea, on both the British and American sides.

Each morning as she packed my kit (lunch), she would belt out rousing choruses of war tunes, from both sides: "Over There, Over There / Send the word, send the word, Over There. . ." Her grandfather sat under a portrait of Lord Kitchener. To be English is to have some minor quirks.

Vietnam was in full swing when a child, and I saw the turmoil through my parents' responses. My father would banish me from the room when Walter Cronkite broadcast war footage. There was a sense of deep mystery surrounding the thing, and terrible violence. My mum's heart swelled with pride over the heroic actions of "our boys," but she did not support the war. And she had nothing but disdain for the "dirty hippy drop-outs" we'd pass on our daily travels.

Early on I also had a yearning for protection, and was drawn to men of honor and duty, who would leave no comrade behind. Men with a sense of duty and responsibility. It was my particular Cinderella fantasy that a soldier could fit that bill.

Combined with Larry Burrows' war photos in Life, I felt steeped in this very distant foreign excursion. As I grew older and the other girls developed crushes on rock stars or movie stars, I could not transfer my admiration from the haunted soldier's faces in the magazines to the likes of a fey Peter Frampton or Billy Idol. I wanted to meet these brave men and thank them. I could only imagine the scope of their sacrifice, but I was separate from them. It was my secret hope one day to talk with them.

Until 2002, I had only known "Vietnam era" vets, but then came a fateful meeting with Ranger. As expected, much discussion centered around the WTC attacks and the ill-advised responses, but I was hopeful I could indulge my long-held desires to enter the thoughts of a Vietnam soldier.

While I have been honored to meet several of his fellows who fought in Vietnam -- all fine people who have indulged me to one degree or another -- Ranger himself is a very focused man. He would probably not mind my saying that his perimeter is rather tight in. Alas, the hoped-for incursions into his psyche were not to be had. But with the blog's inception (2006), oh the variety of soldiers and other men I have met!

Once the initial vulgarians were cleared, there were poets and bards, bakers and thinkers, mystics and humanitarians. There was sensitivity, generosity and grace. I have been truly humbled at the excellent people we have been privileged to meet via this medium. (As mum always said: so many men, so little time!)

Though I am generally a pretty serious and analytical person, I'm not going to lie: One of the big attractions here is the testosterone (well, and the occasional gin and tonic.) Most women have so little, so I feast on it vicariously at the few reasoned military sites. Please don't think me a total ninny, though. Mostly, I marvel at the informed, impassioned and sometimes wicked debate. I've learned much.

So thanks to FDChief -- a man of extraordinary ferocity and refinement -- and the other denizens, I look forward to entering the fray as your thoroughgoing civilian distaff rep.

To the ramparts!