Update 6/22: I should note that the "Islamic Reformation" in this case appears to be entirely urban and mostly young. As far as I can tell from what I read and hear the rural population of Iran still supports the mullahs; the unrest is in the cities. Bill Lind discusses how the split between urban and rural interests was a fairly common feature of the pre-Westphalian state.2. A real question is to what degree the armed forces will support the mullahs with armed force. Rob Farley has a terrific discussion of the issue here in the context of the aniversary of Tianenmen Square. His money graf reads:
"The thing is, Tank Commander is far more dangerous than Tank Man. Tank Man can simply be shot; most seem to believe that Tank Man was later executed, far out of sight of the international media. The regime survives if Tank Man dies, even if the death of Tank Man isn't the optimal outcome. The regime dies, however, if Tank Commander refuses to run over Tank Man."3. For all the lying of the Right, any attempt by an American government to intervene seems likely to produce the opposite of the intended effect.