Monday, July 13, 2020

کمربند و جاده, or "How do you say "Belt and Road" in Farsi?"

So much for "maximum pressure":
"Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

The document also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades. It calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.”

The partnership — first proposed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Iran in 2016 — was approved by President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet in June, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said last week."
This is an obvious move for Iran, given that it is unavoidably clear that any Republican administration - and 2016 makes clear that the US electorate cannot be counted on not to elect a Republican government, no matter how ridiculous - will treat Iran to whatever they can manage of the Ledeen Doctrine.

This is also obviously a very deep tarpit for Iran. Other "Belt and Road" nations have found that the PRC gives nothing that it cannot take, and have found themselves in hock up to their national ears.

Still...a worthwhile reminder that when your only tool is a hammer, and the tool using that tool is an utter tool, you end up with a "foreign policy" stupider than a bagful of hammers.

Oh, well. We're too busy catching the Plague to worry about any of this stuff anymore.

13 comments:

  1. The EU cannot do much in regard to Iran becuase Turkey is literally in the way (and is not European, period).

    I thought that a hot U.S.-Iranian conflict and Iranian nuke program could be stalled if major European countries simply entered a temporary alliance with Iran. Such a move is well beyond their imagination, though. It would be a stark acknowledgment that Europeans and Americans aren't really allies for the time being.

    The "Transatlantiker" lobby has shut up and in part even criticized the lying moron administration and himself, but they would never ever tolerate something that looks like a break that lasts beyond the lying moron's term. The "Transatlantiker" lobby de facto controls the major newspapers and TV news in Germany. It's literally a club of politicians and news editors. One of them is trying to succeed Merkel.

    So if you ever wonder why the EU or German foreign policy is so unimaginative and inactive - it's in substantial part becuase there's a lobby of slavish pro-Americans who suppress public discussions about independent, decisive foreign policymaking.

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    1. *because

      This recurring typo is annoying.

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  2. Smart move on Xi's part. China gets 25 years of oil at under-market-price. That is probably why Iran waited so long to approve all facets of the deal, which had been in the oven under discussion for four years. But this sign-off is probably just a formality, as most of the cooperation has been going on awhile. There have been freight trains running from Eastern China (Shejiang) to Tehran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for four years now. It cuts the time in half that same freight would take by the sea route. That rail route is just a modern version of the ancient Silk Road that flourished for two-thousand years, only interrupted in the 18th century with Imperial Russian incursion into Central Asia and the collapse of the Safavid Empire in Persia.

    Plus it is Xi's slap in the face to the Moron and to Modi in India.

    It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the China/Israel relationship. The close ties between Beijing and Jerusalem go back a long way and includes not only diplomatic and economic bonds, but also military and technological linkages. Looks like now Israel's transfer of high tech missile, laser, and aircraft technology to China is coming back to bite them in the ass with that same tech going to Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Military_cooperation

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  3. I missed the Moron's press conference today. Deliberately! Did any of our esteemed press corps ask him about the Iran/China deal? Have they even heard about it?

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    1. a recap

      https://boingboing.net/2020/07/14/trump-says-travel-ban-is-for.html

      It went exactly as top be expected.

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    2. He is demented. But sadly there are still many kool-aid drinkers out there who don't care that he is an unbalanced lunatic with unsound policies. They have been indoctrinated by their media choices to think that even this imbecile in the WH is better than putting a Democrat there.

      All the adult babysitters in the WH have left because of his tantrums, or been pushed out. Nobody left except sycophants hoping to join in his scams. Looks like Seb Gorka is now back on the looney farm. It was probably him who outlined the points for the Moron's speech.

      As for the China/Iran deal, will Trump ever say a word about it publicly? Or will he try to downpedal it to his base?

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  4. FDChief -

    Hope you and yours are OK and have not been swept up by the Billy Barr's SWAT teams runniong rampant there in Portland?

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    1. Seconded. Do you have any "on the ground" intel to share? Getting a straight story from any media these days is difficult.

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    2. Nope. There's old soldiers and bold soldiers but very few old, bold soldiers. I'm keeping my head down and staying out of the crowds.

      Which doesn't mean that I don't WANT to. I'm sick of the Junior Freikorps fucksticks...and sick of Portland Police Bureau, I should add, who have a record of shitty behavior, racism, fascism (true fact - one of our Boys in Blue set up an actual Nazi shrine in one of our city parks. Got a rap on the swastika and was told not to cosplay Nazis on public property again, but go ahead and whip up on some woolly skulls, kamerad!

      Bottom line? No. It's not a dystopian hellscape ruled by Antifa mobs. Lots of people are pissed off at PPB (which, as I've said, has a rap sheet longer than your arm for crappy policing and general nasty worthlessness) and at the Trumpkins. So there's a bottle or two that goes flying, or some fireworks. Most of the violence comes from the coppers and these federal goon squads.

      Trump and his SA are lying their little asses off. But you knew that, and so do the reporters, but they need something juicy for the 11 O'Clock News.

      So don't worry about me. So long as I can't get my hands on an AT-4 I'll be just fine...

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  5. Couple of worthwhile local press pieces on this whole clusterfuck here:

    https://www.portlandmercury.com/blogtown/2020/07/21/28660564/good-morning-news-cool-moms-and-dads-protest-wheeler-wont-give-up-police-control-and-breaking-down-cop-propaganda

    And here's a good summary of the Police Bureau and why they basically need to be burned to the waterline, hull and sticks, and rebuilt completely differently. Right now they're a fucking plague ship:

    https://www.portlandmercury.com/blogtown/2020/06/16/28547873/hall-monitor-a-historic-opportunity

    Seriously. Places like Milwaukee get worse press, but our Portland cops are the biggest, nuttiest cluster of fuck since the Italian Army of the Isonzo. We'd get more out of our tax dollars firing every last goddamn one of them and hiring some mall cops complete with their little scooters.

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  6. Good to see Auntifa out there.

    And Senior-tifa also. I've been following tazerface (Annapolis grad, 60+ year old former SeaBee) on twitter. He got two bones in his hand broken by a billyclub, plus maced in the eyes from a two foot distance. Just for asking if they remembered their oath to protect and to serve. Stood there and never flinched when the SA whaled on him with their cudgels five times. Only turned away when another punk maced his eyes. Yet he remained standing tall and never wiped his eyes. I never would have done what he did. But I respect him for it. Real name is Chris David. He's a badass in my book. But the flying-maga-monkeys swarms are out dissing him. You would think that the NRA, who claim that they defend the 2nd in order to protect against tyranny, would step up and condemn the nastiness going on in Portland and that is being threatened on every other big city mayoral Democrat.

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    1. Yeah, well, the Threepers are only worried if THEIR "rights" are in play - everyone else, especially the dusky heathens, can go suck it. The MAGAts are basically the same thing - get between them and their things, whether those things are their guns, or their trucks, or whatever toy they fap over, and they'll go nuts about it. But nobody else matters...just them. The whole "resisting tyranny" nonsense is just, well, nonsense.

      The latest tea cracker enthusiasm is something called "Greater Idaho", where the southern and eastern Oregon counties (plus a chunk of northern CA) would split off and join Idaho where they have fewer darkies and tree-huggers and other people who harsh the MAGAt buzz. It they didn't have some really nice scenery that they'd immediately toss to the extraction outfits to totally trash I'd happily see the backs of them. They're worse than useless - they're an active nuisance...

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    2. One of those asshats who wanted to split off was also at Spokane in eastern WA. State Representative 'Kill-All-the-Males' Matt Shea. The guy hosted Patriot Radio hate spiels. Promoted and helped the old man Bundy standoff in Bunkerville NV. Interfered with the arrest of the Malheur Morons in OR. Organized armed militias to go to Priest River ID to block confiscation of weapons from a man who had been declared mentally incompetent. Advocates Christian Sharia. Wrote a manifesto for the 'Biblical Basis for War'.

      He was such a fruitcake that even most (but not all) of his GOP colleagues in the statehouse sanctioned him and forced him out of the State level Republican Caucus.

      Accused of domestic terrorism by the WA State House and the Spokane County Sheriff. Those charges were reportedly referred to the FBI and the US Atty for Eastern WA six months ago, but I haven't heard squat about it since. He has dropped out of the 2020 election. Let's hope the FBI is keeping a close eye on him.

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