One week
One week into
One week into the New Year
And here we are...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/rockets-us-airbase-iraq/index.html
I thought Iran would proxy us, and to be honest, I'm surprised they took direct action.
But the details coming out about how Qassaem Soleimani was lured to his assassination explains a lot about the duplicity of how we cravenly used duplicity to kill a man under a white flag.
I don't even know what to think or say...just...fuck.
I didn't think the Iranian leadership was as goddamn stupid as mine. Apparently they are.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine but there have been a dozen policy people swarming the West Wing frantically trying to argue Trump out of a nuclear strike.
There's simply no "good" that will come of this. Neither side can "win". We will kill hundreds to thousands of Iranians. They will try (and probably fail, given the military disparity) to do the same to us. And after it all slowly runs down there will be nothing but the dead, and the maimed, ruin, and merciless hatred.
Meanwhile in Washington we have a huge leadership vacuum:
ReplyDeleteAn Acting Director of National Intelligence;
No Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence (not even an acting placeholder);
An Acting Secretary of the Navy;
No Undersecretary of the Navy;
An Acting Undersecretary of the Army (a former Navy JAG officer?);
An Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control & International Security Affairs;
An Acting Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs;
An Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
An Acting Secretary of Homeland Security (a former lobbyist);
An Acting Deputy Secretary of DHS (a birther & failed Virginia politician), ditto for CBP & ICE;
and a few score Acting Asst Secretaries in DoD and State.
But the biggest leadership vacuums are the Moron in the WH, and Secretary 'Waiting-for-the-Rapture' Mike PomPom.
This is worth a read:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.independent.co.uk/voices/qassem-soleimani-death-iran-baghdad-middle-east-iraq-saudi-arabia-a9272901.html
If it's true - and it has the ring of truth - then Tehran might feel justified in believing that it was suckered into a trap designed to kill their Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
"This suggests that Trump helped lure the Iranian commander to a place where he could be killed. It is possible that the president was unaware of the crucial role that Soleimani was playing in the attempted rapprochement with the Saudis. Or that he knew but did not care."
Christ, what a damned mess.
FDChief -
ReplyDeleteI suspect tonight's irbm attack was a one-off, for now anyway. To maintain face and to soothe Ali & Zeinab in the street with some sense of swift justice. Probably advised by Putin, and with a message from Putin to the Moron to back off.
The actual retaliation will come later. As you & Don Corleone & the Klingon proverb stated "Revenge is a dish best served cold".
Unfortunately, this has given Trump and all the goddamn idiots like Rove and Kristol that have been jonesing for this for twenty years the excuse they'll need to bounce the rubble some more.
DeleteFranklin said that there never was a good war or a bad peace. But there are definitely WORSE wars, and this is one.
Fucking teenagers playing chicken with their parents cars are more rational actors than any of the national leadership involved in the last week. Alas, I see no way for a third party to step in and intermediate while emotions cool down.
DeleteI suspect that the Iranians deliberately chose to either miss, or chose weapons which were inaccurate enough to likely plow into the desert in order to provide a possible off-ramp. However, if Trump takes the off ramp, he will have to swallow the fact that Iran took the last swipe. Very subtle.
I also think we are not done with the revenge. It will be served cold. Someone should check the mosque at Qom. Come morning, look to see if it still flying the red flag?
Ael -
DeleteAny word yet on which missiles were used? I'm guessing older Shahabs, but that is just a WAG. Specs are sketchy on accuracy. Wiki says Iran has a locally made GPS type system, but we could have spoofed those. I'm illiterate about whatever inertial navigation systems they may have.
looks like a Qiam
Deletehttps://twitter.com/wslafoy/status/1214896578286276608
Trump is supposed to go on TV this morning. I can't be bothered, having some fieldwork down in Oregon City, but I don't need to; it'll be all the usual "worse than one million Hitlers" bullshit surrounded by a bodyguard of a million lies.
ReplyDeleteThe real point is that 1) there isn't a hope in hell that the United States, short of a WW2-level-of-effort, can materially alter political conditions in Tehran, 2) Iran cannot do significant material harm to the Unites States, so 3) this is, in effect, nothing more than a massive exercise in dick-waving on both sides that will simply result in dead people and broken shit. If war is supposed to be the continuation of politics by other means, this is the continuation of the politics of Bullheaded Stupidity.
Sensible polities would stop at this point and realize that. Since the mullahs are fairly rigid theocrats and Trump is...I have no fucking idea, but I'm leaning towards some sort of Pillsbury Doughboy animated with Abe Normal's brain inside his orange punkinhead...an idiot neither polity is acting sensibly at this point.
And THAT's the frustration. Iran is the result of generations of problems; a turbulent region, a lack of an Enlightenment, Cold War fuckery, and now a regional War of Religion.
We? We don't have that excuse. We're a massive, rich, cosmopolitan Great Power. And yet, here we are, with this bloated nincompoop trading "Nya! Nya!" insults with the mullahs and having to listen to fatheads who were utterly, bloodily wrong about Iraq try and shove us into war the same way in damn near the same place again.
As my old pal Jim Struthers would have said: what a fuckin' fucked-up fuckstory.
Welp, just learned that the Ukrainian Airliner that crashed while all these hijinx were going on was carrying a couple of Engineering professors from my children's school. My son was taught by one of them.
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear that, Ael.
DeleteI hate to even suggest this, but...could this have been a nervous Iranian AAA battery firing off a SAM? I sure as hell hope not, but...
DeleteLooks like we lost 30 Edmontonians on the flight. Many with ties to the University of Alberta. This town is gonna mourn for a few days.
DeleteSure hope it wasn't jittery Iranian bird gunners, but I hate coincidences.
It's a sad business. I don't suppose we will know the cause for awhile. Although since it was flying west from Tehran on a well used flight path it seems contrary to think it was AAA.
Delete"Gatineau, Quebec, 8 January 2020 — The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) offers its condolences to the families and loved ones of the people who perished in the accident involving Ukrainian International Airlines flight 752 in Tehran, Iran.
DeletePursuant to international agreements (International Civil Aviation Organization - Annex 13), the Aircraft Accident Investigation Board of the Civil Aviation Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran is leading the investigation into the accident. In keeping with this agreement, by virtue of fatalities to Canadian citizens, the TSB has appointed an expert who will receive and review factual information released by the State of Occurrence, and monitor the progress of the investigation.
The TSB remains available to provide any technical assistance requested by Iranian and Ukrainian accident investigation bodies. This is all the information available until further notice."
So it WAS an Iranian AAA battery, and, in what may be the most bizarrely ironic part of this whole bizarre business, it's turning into a massive embarrassment and scandal for the mullahs; lots of protests in the streets, lots of students angry for the government's lies and fed up with things in general.
DeleteWonder if the mullahs and the IRGC will now rethink the shootdown of the Iranian airliner with 290 souls lost back in the late 80s? They've always considered it deliberate. Will their own fatal mistake change their minds on that? Perhaps a few.
DeleteAAA is anti-air artillery, an old-fashioned and in this case inaccurate acronym.
DeleteIt was a SAM that shot down the airliner, and it's not even safe to say that it was a "SAM battery" because TOR is an all-you-need-in-one-vehicle system.
This seems to be the 2nd airliner kill by TOR (SA-15), which may highlight not only a technical IFF weakness, but also a more widespread issue: The combination of high effective ceiling (enough for airliners with the newer missiles) and fairly short range search radar (less than 40 km) gives less than three minutes time for decision-making before a missile may be underway to shoot down ana irliner at its cruise altitude unless the air defence integration by datalink works.
This may also be an issue with some Western short range air defence systems.
The airliner shootdown by USS Vincennes was meant as manslaughter or murder against two Iranian Air Force crewmembers over international waters. It's not comparable because the Iranian SAM troops meant to down an unmanned missile over Iranian territory.
DeleteFrom Dr John Limbert, former Embassy official in Tehran and "guest" of the revolutionaries:
ReplyDelete"After 30 years of hostility, floundering and missteps, officials in both Tehran and Washington find themselves in the unwavering grip of five rules that, like the biblical "laws of the Medes and the Persians that alter not", have come to control both sides. The rules are:
1. Never walk through an open door. Instead, bang your head against a wall.
2. Never say yes to anything the other side proposes. Doing so will make you look weak.
3. The other side is infinitely hostile, devious, domineering and irrational. It is the embodiment of all that is evil.
4. Therefore, anything the other side proposes must contain some kind of trick. Its only purpose in life is to cheat you.
5. Whenever you seem to be making progress, someone or some diabolical coincidence will mess it up."
https://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2011/05/engaging-iran-first-break-rules.html
F -
DeleteA wise man is Dr Limbert. I don't suppose there is any hope for breaking the rules while the Moron is under the influence of PomPom and the neocons. He seems to really want a deal, but the Iranians rightfully consider him the dealbreaker. So why should they give concessions for s deal now, just to have that deal overturned in the future.
It now looks like some sanity HAS reined in both sides; Trumpy's incoherent little rant this morning was notably free of Fire and Fury, and the Iranians are making some pretty open hints that these were warning shots - that they were targeted to hit nothing, but they could have.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see. The FAUX drummers are still hammering the war drums.
I have to say, though; courtesy of Jim Wright, here's my favorite wingnut take on all of this:
"According to Trump this morning, and being repeated ad nauseum by conservatives:
1. Obama "gave" Iran billions.
2. Iran bought a bunch of missiles with the money.
3. Iran launched those missiles at American bases.
4. No death. No damage. No problem. And we saw them coming. And now, Iran is "standing down."
So ... what we're saying here is that Obama apparently tricked Iran into wasting all that money?
Who's playing 3D Chess NOW, Bitches?"
OK, then. Nobody is being nuked, so that's still good...
Did you see the Orange one giving the speech? He looked as uncomfortable as when he was apologizing for praising a bunch of neo-nazis in Charlottesville.
DeleteIncoming tweet pulling it all back in 5..4..3..
My guess is that he's hating having to act all "statesmanlike" and really wants to go all "HULK SMASH!!!" and shake his little fists at them. But he has a dim hint that all this might NOT go as planned, so he's pulling his dick in a bit...
DeleteWorth noting, too, that Trumpy Bear didn't give the Iranians jack shit this morning. No invitation to discussions, no American concessions, nothing. He didn't actively make things worse (like I thought he would) but he didn't do anything to defuse or improve things, either.
ReplyDeleteSo to call this "statesmanlike" is like calling your monkey "noble" for not flinging his poop...
Some sources are saying both Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 missiles were used. The after-attack imagery on al-Asad Airbase looks like some of it was damned accurate. Took out some hangars with direct hits. Wiki and other sites have an old accuracy estimate of a half kilometer CEP. But the ones that got through appear to be a lot better than that. Perhaps they used some type of terminal guidance. Certainly they have such technology. It's not cutting edge. The Houthi drone and cruise missile attack on the Saudi oilfields seemed to have used terminal guidance. I would bet that unexpected accuracy is why General Milley had those huge dark carpetbags under his eyes during the presser.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31769/satellite-images-show-the-aftermath-of-irans-missile-strikes-on-al-assad-air-base-in-iraq
"Reckless, illegal, unhinged."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.politico.eu/article/why-europe-hates-trump-more-than-iran/
I'm confused. No post on the whole Hessian troops angle?
ReplyDeleteSven -
ReplyDeleteI'm confused also, you lost me on the Hessian troops angle. And what other airliner was shot down by the TOR? And when?
You are right about a probable technical glitch in the TOR IFF, and also the short fuse for decision making. Do we know yet whether the IFF transponder on PS752 was functioning correctly? Since the TOR is a standalone system normally used to protect armor or infantry units, there is suspicion that this particular TOR TEL was not linked to Iran's strategic AD system. Which ties in with your short decision time comment. Also what tech mods did Iran make to the TOR in the last dozen years? They seem to have a habit of making changes to foreign systems - Iranizing them? Are training and expertise levels the same on the TOR as they are on the S300, and other long and medium range systems in Iran? The War Zone has an article on the shootdown:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people
I disagree with your comment on the Vincennes and flight 665. They are comparable because both were human error, most likely induced by stress & possibly fatigue during the fog of war. A bad judgement was made thinking that 665 was an attacking Iranian F14. BTW, the Vincennes was in Iran's territorial waters in hot pursuit of an Iranian missile boat that had fired on the Vincennes helicopter, and the airliner was hit while still over Iran's territorial waters. It was a terrible judgement as the IFF on 665 was squawking correctly.
Hessian troops?
DeleteAh, right. MH17 was shot down by SA-11/-17, not SA-15.
ReplyDeleteHessian troops angle
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-brags-about-serving-up-american-troops-to-saudi-arabia-for-cash-936623/
Ah, right, I get it now.
DeleteSorry, I'm a little dense.
Sven -
ReplyDeletePresident Bonespurs apparently wants to turn DoD into Blackwater.
BTW Iran has arrested several people over the shootdown of PS752. And President Rouhani says "that all those accountable for the accidental downing of the civilian Ukrainian aircraft last week must be punished."
http://www.iran-daily.com/News/264339.html?catid=3&title=Rouhani--All-liable-in-Ukrainian-air-disaster-must-be-punished
Youtube has a vieo from RT regarding TOR. Propaganda, but good for a background info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=objljEE7B6M
Esper and the liar-in-chief told another whopper last week when they said no US troops were injured in Iran's ballistic missile attack on al-Asad Airbase. Eight US troops were evacuated via Ramstein to the USArmy regional medical center at Landstuhl for concussion and possible TBI. Three more were sent to a clinic at Camp Arifjan (known affectionately by the troops as 'Arif-jail'.
ReplyDelete