Wednesday, January 17, 2018

What's Kurdish for "under the bus"?

The Turkish Army appears to be preparing to throw some additional complexity into the already-eleventh-dimension-chess-game that is post-IS Syria by threatening portions of northwest Syria currently controlled by the Kurdish PYD Party "People's Protection Units" (YPG) armed forces.

The Erdogan government, much like the governments preceding it, sees the YPG as functionally indistinguishable from the Kurdistan Worker's Party, or PKK, and clearly now that the Islamic State is off the table and the endgame for Syria appears to be closing has decided to take action against the perennial bogeymen of the states of the Anatolian and the Fertile Crescent, the Kurds. Or, at least, one faction of that beleaguered people.

The YPG was central to the US drive to reduce the physical "state" of the Islamic State, providing the only really effective infantry for that campaign. On Tuesday a spokesperson for the "US-led anti-ISIS coalition" tossed the YPG in the Afrin region under the Turkish bus, noting that the YPG in northwest Syria were not within the coalition AO.

I'm not sure how this will work, given that the same article linked above claims that the Trump Administration's cunning Syria plan includes supporting some 30,000 "Syrian Democratic Forces" along the Iraq-Syria border, ostensibly to continue to hunt IS fugitives but strategically to interdict Iraqi and Iranian support for proxies inside Syria such as Hizbullah.

The SDF, however, is pretty much the YPG with ash-and-trash. The YPG fielded something like 50,000 troops, while the Arab portions of the SDF consist of two main groups, the Jaysh al-Thuwar that includes some Turkmen and Kurds but seldom put together more than 2-3,000 fighters, and the Jaysh al-Sanadid militia of the Shammar tribe centered in northeastern Syria and Anbar province in western Iraq. The Shammar could assemble 8-10,000 troops. If the YPG decide to grab their A-bags and beat cheeks there won't be enough "SDF" to provide an interior guard on a porta-potty.

And this is beside the whole "The Kurds get screwed again" meme which seems to be a Middle Eastern thing and one in which the U.S. plays it's own shameful part.

Leaving the YPG units in the northwest to be smashed by Turkish tanks after coopting them to help fight for U.S. political objectives would be in the great tradition of American expeditionary war; maybe the Kurds can find some surviving Vietnamese mountain tribe Mike Force guys who can teach them the Nung term for "buddyfucker".

Once again we're reminded, not so much of Trump Administration incompetence (although that certainly plays a role here), but of the fact that describing the United States' Middle Eastern policy as an actual "policy" - that is, as something developed with a thoughtful consideration of regional realities and American national interests - remains somewhere between risible and tragic.

50 comments:

  1. I'm sure we will leave the Afrin Kurds in the lurch in a heartbeat. Just like we screwed over the KRG when they dared to hold a referendum. There is no way we want to give Erdogan an excuse to pull out of NATO. And no way we want to put US personnel and assets at Incirlik Airbase in jeopardy.

    However, I have a suspicion that Erdogan is trying to get the Afrin Kurds to react in a way that he can brand them as terrorists in a way that some might believe. Or maybe he is bluffing and pumping up his base. And perhaps hoping that the Russians or someone will hold him back , kinda like the drunk in a barroom brawl who keeps screaming "Let me at him, let me at him" but never throws a punch

    So far I understand he has stepped up the shelling of civilian villages in Afrin that has been going on for a year or more. He built a border wall around Afrin a la Trump. He has staged armor units on the Afrin border, but he has done that before also, both there in Afrin and further east at Kobane and Tell Abyad. He has had his FSA bullyboys step up up their attacks against both Afrin and Manbij. In the Turkish controlled area south of Afrin he has had HTS (formerly known as al-Qaeda in Syria) make threatening moves against Afrin and sweep the border area with Dushka fire. He has (arguably) sent ISIS cells into the Kobane countryside to keep the YPG in that area from reinforcing Afrin.

    But will he actually invade with Turkish Army troops. I am skeptical. e will step up the bombardment. And if he sends in his FSA and/or HTS cronies into Afrin there will most likely be some Turkish troops with them but not in uniform. If that happens, IMHO the YPG will kick their butts. I hope I am right.

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  2. Rumour has it that Erdogan has asked Russia for airspace clearance for a few weeks over Afrin. Depending on how Russia responds (or what price they demand) you may see whether it is the drunken "hold me back" scenario, or something more serious. If you see Turkish airplanes flying over Syria west of the Euphrates, I suspect that Erdogan will then be honour bound to follow through with a ground attack.

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  3. The whole "Turks versus Kurds" thing is utterly predictable, if expectedly vile if, like me, you appreciate the Kurds. Again I'm reminded of Thucydides observations on the strong and the weak. Ugh.

    But my own government's part here is the truly despicable part. Once again we took advantage of a local group needed help to achieve our ends and, once we thought those ends were attained, walked away.

    Here's the thing, tho; I think we haven't really attained jack shit. The IS "state" was never really dangerous - it's the IS franchises that have a real potential for sowing chaos, and that's what the salafis are back to now.

    Without the Kurds we have no reliable proxies in the region from Anatolia to the Indian border. Those that don't actively hate what the US has done there are little better than clients-of-convenience, using us for their own interests and tolerating ours so long as that's not too much work.

    That's why my point is that our Middle Eastern policies are so damn infuriating. If we want a genuine ally the Kurds are a natural. If we don't want endless wrangling with the governments in Ankara, Baghdad, Damascus, and Tehran we need to walk well wide of the Kurds, at least in public.

    Instead we pick the "policy" tooled to a short-term, limited objective and then act stunned when it makes the region as a whole much more difficult for US interests.

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  4. Reminds me of the Shi'ite revolt of 1991, which didn't exactly leave the Shi'ites in admiration of or love for the United States.

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    1. True dat. The Arsenal of Democracy has a long and sordid history of making trouble for people in places where it wants something and, once it has what it wanted, strolling away whistling. If I was a US proxy I know I'd have one hand behind my back at all times and one eye on Uncle Sammy, too, waiting for the betrayal.

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  5. "Leaving the YPG units in the northwest to be smashed by Turkish tanks after coopting them to help fight for U.S. political objectives ..."

    We certainly used the the YPG and their allies for our ends east of the Euphrates and in some isolated areas west of that river like Manbij and Tabqa. But my understanding is that we never used the Afrin branch of the YPG for any purpose. Of course that won't mean jack scheiss to the rest of the YPG as they consider the Afrin YPG to be part of the whole, deserving of the same support.

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    1. That's my point.

      I can see walking wide of the Kurds on principle. Lots of ME governments have a "Kurdish problem" and being tied to Kurdish factions complicates dealing with those governments. A realpolitik approach to the Middle East would require dealings w the Kurds only thru deniable cutouts.

      But once we've accepted Kurdish lives as currency it's too late to hang some Kurds out just because they're not immediately useful. That would mean throwing away the asset for which we burned parts of our credit with the Arab and Turkish governments, making our short-sighted choice geopolitically pointless, as well...

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  6. AEL -

    Back in August the Russians put some military observers in Afrin in an attempt to keep the peace between the Kurds and the Turkish proxies in the Syrian land occupied by the Turks in northern Aleppo. Those observers are reportedly part of the the Russian MOD Centre for Deconfliction in Syria. As far as I know they are still there. At least there have been no announcements of their withdrawal. So why would the Russians give the Turkish Air Force a free pass?

    http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/29-august-footage-of-russian-military-observers-in-afrin

    I think Erdogan knows that he will not get clearance from the Russians to bomb Afrin. He is pushing this entire effort to try to derail the Kurds from participating in the Sochi Peace Conference scheduled for the end of January. And also to throw some red meat to his political base in Turkey.

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  7. AEL -

    Regarding Turkish airstrikes on Afrin. Here is the latest from the BBC:

    Syrian Foreign Ministry says the Syrian Air Force was "ready to destroy Turkish air targets in the skies of Syria".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42731227

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    1. Well, I would not overly worry about Syrian Air Defence assets. However the Russian ones are completely different. Plus, last time Erdogan arm wrestled with Putin, he lost. Turkish trade with the various Turkish speaking -stans is only now getting back to normal. So, I don't expect Erdogan to get serious about Afrin until he makes a deal with Moscow.

      Of course, this does not help the Kurdish civilians getting shelled as a result of Turkish hijinx. As Bion said: "The boys throw rocks at the frogs in jest. But the frogs die in earnest."

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    2. Cole reports that Erdogan has dispatched a military mission to Moscow, presumably to try and work out a deal to clear strikes in Afrin. So this may go beyond posturing. Hard to say.

      My main point, tho, is how this 30K Kurdforce thing points up how much of the US's Middle East "policy" rests on self-delusion and wishful thinking. Who but a willful idiot would imagine an Arab state - ANY Arab state - tolerating a rogue Kurdish American-proxy force in their territory? Damascus won't. Baghdad won't. Ankara sure as hell won't. It's a stupid plan the promises to create more geopolitical problems than it solves, assuming it can solve any.

      The suffering of the Kurds is part of an inescapable geographic tragedy. But the cluster of fuck that is this US "plan" is a goddamn farce scripted by ambitious knuckleheads.

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  8. I'm going to take the opposite tack which is...leaving the Turks to do something really, really stupid, AND not in their best interests against the Kurd's.

    1) The Kurds have a strong, historical identity...as opposed to the Arab's in Iraq, Syria, et al as they're more tribal, and prone to splitting up and rapidly disintegrating into fighting when the common enemy is defeated/demoralized.

    2) The Kurd's are battle-hardened...and...I'm pretty confident that Erdogan goes stupid, he's going to regret it. These aren't the same Kurds from the early 00's, 90's, 80's, or 70's.

    I think the US, as much as Trump is willing to let any ally suck it, is going to be forced to intervene when the Kurd's rofl-stomp those Turkish Armored units...because nothing says, "I've made a serious mistake" like thinking you're going to win a fight only to have your opponent open up on you like a storm of revenge.
    And those Kurd's have a long memory about the Turks...and the Turk's don't have enough airplanes to save their happy little units from getting wiped by a very well armed, and EXPERIENCED Kurdish army. And I can see the Kurds thinking, "oh yeah, pay day bitches, has arrived!"

    I predict the US, or some other body will have to broker a peace between the two because I can see the Kurds going for a massive "historically it's ours to begin with" land grab using Turkish aggression as a pretext...

    As for Iraq, and Syria...they're going to be dealing with tribal issues, and view the Kurd's as "a problem to deal with later" which gives the Kurds time to organize into a cohesive identity.

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    1. Well, apparently the Russians are moving their observers south to get them out of the line of fire between the Turkish Army and the YPG in Afrin

      https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/russia-moving-military-observers-syria-afrin-180119080808957.html

      The linked article notes that the US government has "protested" the Turkish moves, and claims that Tillerson is supposed to be trying to Yanksplain this Kurdforce thing, as if that was going to make it any more palatable to Ankara. Christ, the stupid. It burns.

      Regardless of how good the YPG in Afrin is they're going to get stomped. Quality didn't help the Grossdeutschland against the Red Army steamroller and it won't help the YPG, either; quantity has a quality all its own, especially when the quantity is in tanks and airpower and the defender lacks heavy weapons.

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  9. Air campaign against the city of Afrin started. Casualties so far include civilians and children. I have not seen a response by Syrian air defense units.

    Reportedly there is still a Russian flag flying near the Minnigh miltary airbas in eastern Afrin Canton. Not sure if Russians themselves are still there, or not?
    https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/20-january-a-russian-flag-still-flies-at-the-ayn-daqnah-village

    YPG forces in eastern provinces of Syria are strangely quiet. Have they stood down to reinforce Afrin? There is still 2500 square miles of ISIS territory along the Syria-Iraq border in Hasakah and DeZ governates. True it is mostly salt pans but the coalition is still conducting airstrikes there. But no ground operations by SDF are going on. And there is over 100 square miles of ISIS controlled territory in the Euphrates River Valley between Abu Hammam and Baghuz tahtani. No offensive ops going on their either. Just holding off Daeshi attacks. Seems like not many SDF troops left in that area except for local Arabs and perhaps Syriacs.

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  10. "Regardless of how good the YPG in Afrin is they're going to get stomped."

    Let us hope not. If that happens Erdogan will burn and bulldoze Kurdish villages with women and children trapped inside just like he did to many Kurdish cities in southeastern Turkey. That did not stop the PKK from continuing to attack Turkish police and Turkish Army patrols.

    My ken is that
    1] If the Turkish offensive on Afrin is predominately by their FSA proxies, then the YPG will kick butt.
    2] After Erdogan's SIS allies failed to take Kobani, Ocalan predicted that sooner or later another Turkish target would be Afrin. He cautioned that the people of Afrin should start stockpiling anti-tank weapons caches. Maybe they took his advice? They have certainly captured a great number of them from the FSA and from the Daeshis.
    3] After years of fighting against Kurdish civilian teenagers in SE Turkey, there is a thought that the Turkish Army has long lost its taste for actual combat in which they might be asked to shed blood.
    4] After the 2016 coup d'etat attempt the leadership of the Turkish Army was decimated by arrests and purges, and by many fleeing the country for asylum elsewhere. Current leadership is untested. Will they live up to this challenge?
    5] Turkish tanks are fairly old. M60s, Leopard 1 and Leopard 2. They lost ten Leopards to land mines during Op Euphrates hield, plus how many more to anti-tank weapons is unknown. Will Germany approve an upgrade of the Leopards that Erdogan is asking for?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-tanks/germany-likely-to-approve-tank-upgrades-for-turkey-spiegel-idUSKBN1F826V

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  11. I'm not sure if the YPG in the eastern enclaves can reach Afrin to reinforce their comrades there. Any moves may have to be by infiltrating thru the government-held areas - which means no help w heavy weapons. Shit.

    I just can't see how this works out well for the Kurds. My hope is purely damage-limitation at this point.

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  12. Al Jazeera reporting that the Turks are mobilizing their "Free Syrian Army" salafi stooges as their infantry. We'll have to see if that means the Turkish Army is as concerned about the fragility of their maneuver units as you suggest.

    My question would be how the Turks think this ends short of murderous ethnic cleansing. Could it be they know it will and just don't care?

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  13. "My question would be how the Turks think this ends short of murderous ethnic cleansing."

    And yet Erdogan has named this unwarranted attack as "Operation Olive Branch". I believe he thinks this will end with keeping the Kurds out of the Sochi Peace Conference. But it could easily devolve into ethnic cleansing. I note that the Turkish Religious Affairs Director has sent an order to all mosques and told them to read the Conquest Surah. Meanwhile the attack has sparked new life into the Islamic State, which is launching an offensive in DeZ province. Is that ISIS/Erdogan collusion, again like in Kobani?

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  14. We now have two NATO allies fighting a proxy war against each other.

    How long until Turkey is ejected from the alliance?

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  15. AEL -

    Russia has been playing that card with Erdogan for awhile now. Hoping to tease him out of NATO. Possibly that is why they initially gave him a free hand in Afrin.

    But it looks like now Moscow is having second thoughts? Or is playing both sides against the middle, as a Russian parlimentarian is claiming that Russia will go to the UN and demand that Turkey halt its offensive in Afrin.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-lawmaker/russia-to-demand-in-u-n-that-turkey-halts-syria-operation-ria-citing-lawmaker-idUSKBN1F90S1

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  16. Well, Moscow is just having fun at Washington's expense. You can be assured that any UN resolution supported by Russia that purports to eject Turkey from Syria will also apply to the USA. Since the Americans want to stay in Syria forever, they will be twisted into knots trying to word something that applies to Turkey and not them selves. Either that, or the Americans will have to veto a resolution that would have protected the Kurds.

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  17. The latest from Afrin reports that Turkish Army maneuver elements, including infantry and armor units, have crossed the border into Syria. "Special operations" forces were included but my guess is that these are just the higher-quality "commando" infantry that seems to turn up in Middle Eastern armies as a more reliable infantry unit as opposed to the worthless fellahin rabble in most Arab straight-leg infantry outfits. Then again, this is Turkey, not Egypt, so maybe not.

    Irregardless, that can't be good for the Kurds of Afrin. The official Erdogan line is that the objective is the destruction of the YPG "terrorists" (Christ, but that term is beginning to sicken me...) and the Kurdish civilians are not in danger. What happens when the YPG is gone and those civilians handed over to the tender mercies of the FSA salafi jihadis goes unmentioned.

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    1. "special forces" may simply have gotten some heliborne training and may have a low share of conscripts.
      It's sad that so many armies invest in special forces instead of making sure that regular infantry gives adversaries headaches.

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    2. Agreed. Even the U.S.Army, which starts from a much broader and deeper quality manpower pool has not resisted the siren call to pool the sharpest guys in these "special" units. I vividly recall one of my company commanders griping about a promising E-6 who had volunteered for the Special Forces course. "If I had him here he'd have been a great platoon sergeant. There he's gonna lead...what? Ten guys?"

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    3. Bill Slim thought that special units were a waste because they lowered the entire Army's combat power in exchange for gaining power in a specialized and hence less flexible unit.

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    4. I'd trust Slim's judgement on that. His Defeat Into Victory is one of the best campaign analyses I've ever read.

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    5. I doubt USSOCOM is used to being called what I called them, but then again - who is? ;-)

      http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.de/2010/09/glorified-cannibals.html
      http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.de/2014/09/special-forces.html

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  18. CNN-Turkey is reporting that the Syrian Kurds have been disinvited from the Sochi peace conference, which was scheduled for next week.

    So perhaps they will withdraw after the conference starts?

    Or NOT? Erdogan has vowed to 'eliminate' every single YPG fighter in Syria. And members of Erdogan's AKP party are re-encting Ottoman wet dreams in Hatay on the borders of Afrin.

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  19. Link for the Ottoman wet dream comment above:

    http://en.hawarnews.com/shows-of-ottoman-dreams-on-afrin-border/

    I note that Turkey is also shelling and carrying out airstrikes East of the Euphrates. In al-Kahtiniyah east of Qamishli, in Amude west of Qamishli, and in Ras al-Ayn & Tel Halaf between Kobani and Qamishli. Seems they are trying to keep the YPG from the Jazira and Kobani cantons busy to keep them from reinforcing Afrin.

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  20. Not looking good for the YPG in Afrin: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/turkey-battles-syrian-kurds-fronts-afrin-180123075112364.html

    And note that, as expected, our Nozzle-jockey Boy bleated some random protest and was carelessly kicked to the curb by Erdogan, who knows perfectly well that Tillerson's master could care less who slaughters brown people so long as the dead are brown. I'm betting the YPG is getting a good taste of how their American "ally" is going to look after them.

    Welcome to the New World Order, lads.

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    1. Notice Erdogan's response to the West's desire for an explicit timetable: "when the target is achieved. How long have you (i.e. America) been in Afghanistan?"

      He thinks he's being clever exposing the hypocrisy. I would ask him to think more closely on that question and then look forward to crying himself to sleep in a few more years.

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  21. Lots of propaganda going on by both sides.

    Turks are claiming they have inflicted massive casualties on YPG fighters and are advancing on multiple fronts.

    The PYD office in Afrin claims majority of casualties are civilians. And they claim that the Turkish salients have been halted after a few kilometers. They also claim two tanks and an armored vehicle have been destroyed, and the commander of the Turkish proxy unit, the Samarkand Brigade, has been killed.

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  22. My guess is that the Turkish attack will grind south; the combination of armor, arty, and tac air is just too much for light infantry in open country.

    The real nut is when the YPG falls back into Afrin itself. Do the Turkish grunts have the sack to do a Kurdish Stalingrad? Do the Turkish commanders order a Sri Lankan style ratissage knowing how many women and kiddies will die?

    If the answers are "yes" this gets damn ugly.

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  23. FDC -

    "Do the Turkish grunts have the sack to do a Kurdish Stalingrad?"

    The thing is that so far in Afrin the vast majority of Turkish grunts are not Turkish. They are Syrian Turkmen, Uzbekis, Uighurs, etc. 13,000 of them altogether. No, I do not think they have the cojones for all-out urban combat. Plus from the southern front the Turkish backed HTS and other jihadi allies are trying to push north from Idlib province, and they would probably delight in a Syrian Stalingrad.

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  24. Sven -

    The Turks have some 'glorified cannibals' also. Reportedly their maroon berets are doing some direct action in Afrin.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Turkish-special-forces-sent-to-Syria-s-Afrin.html

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  25. The really rotten part of the U.S. role in this is that despite tossing the Kurds in Afrin under the Turkish bus the YPG doesn't really have any alternative to continuing to play the role of U.S. proxy. Who else can they hope for? Christ, what a snakepit the Middle East is.

    Thank Heaven We the People elected a populist America-Firster who will waste no time bringing the boys home and closing down these pointless adventures!

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  26. WH readout of the phone call between the S-hole-in-chief and Erdogan. The buzz on the street is that Erdogan went into an anti-west tirade with his staff after the conversation.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-4/

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    1. CNN Turk says the White Hoes readout is incorrect, and that Trump never mentioned “concern on escalating violence” about Afrin.

      https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/956283083023638528

      Hmmm! Which Liar-in-Chief should I believe? Ours or theirs?

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    2. Apparently regardless of what the two egomaniacs said the U.S. embedded with the YPG around Manbij are preparing to get hit: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/concerns-turkey-military-confrontation-syria-180124203652700.html

      If Turkish rounds kill U.S. troopers the shit really hits the fan.

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  27. FDC -

    A Russian website is claiming it already happened.

    http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/01/syria-two-us-military-advisers-killed.html

    True or Russ agitprop?

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    1. At this point I wouldn't trust anything that has an .ru origin on it. But I'm not sure I trust this administration to be straight up about this, either.

      Beu...her e-mails!

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    2. Regardless of what our pals the Russians claim, what is indisputable is the Turks announcing the anyone (read; you Yankee fuckers) in the same grid square as a YPG unit will get the same treatment. So the GIs around Manbij are within the Turkish free-fire zone.

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    3. FDC -

      The Manjib district has been a free fire zone for Erdogan's proxies since at least February of last year. Good thing they cannot shoot straight, I am reminded of Deadeye Dick Chney's marksmanship. GIs there regularly return fire.

      But of course now they face potential airstrikes by F-16s designed and developed by General Dynamics and paid for by US taxpayers. I saw somewhere though that US aircraft were flying combat air patrols over Manbij.

      The defense of Manbij primarily lies with the MMC or Manbij Military Council. Mostly Arabs and Turkmen with a few Chechens and Circassians, I do not know if there are any YPG left there. They are allies of the MMC though and the Turks would probably not consider any difference between them.

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  28. Speaking of 'chutzpah', the YPG in Afrin is asking Turkish soldiers and Turkish affiliated gang members to surrender. They guarantee their safety.

    http://en.hawarnews.com/sdf-calls-on-turkish-army-and-affiliated-gangs-to-surrender/

    Plus they claim they have already captured 16.

    http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/news/middle-east/410092

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  29. In what has to be one of the most Middle Eastern-y bits of Middle Eastern politics Cole reports (per a Lebanese publication, https://www.juancole.com/2018/01/trump-syrian-turkey.html) that the Afrin YPD has asked the Assad government to help them resist a Turkish "foreign invasion" that includes local rebel salafi jihadis!

    Of course Damascus will ignore this, given that everyone involved here are their enemies, but it points up the insane complexity of local politics that confronts even the most savvy and nimble imperial power, and the degree to which imperialism has become a mug's game.

    It was one thing to use these factional fights to gain power in the hustings when We had the Maxim Gun and they had not. It is quite another now that They do, along with things like cheap automatic weapons and easily-improviseable command-detonated mines and booby-traps. The perils of intervening on the side of your imperial proxy are such that no sensible Great Power can count on doing so without risk. That the U.S. "Middle Eastern policy" depends on such risk says something highly critical of the sort of decisions that the U.S. governments - and this goes way further back than the Trumpkins - have made in this troubled region.

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    1. Maybe...Damascus still has problems...but...and herein is the but...

      IF...

      Damascus see's an opportunity for enemy of my enemy to...you know...fight against...their enemies...a little support here, a little support there, nothing direct, but you know...just enough to keep the two fighting each other long enough...

      Damascus weakens one enemy significantly, and the other potential enemy is so bloodied the idea of entertaining any future ambitions will have to be put on hold...all the while Damascus consolidates it's position.

      I hate thinking like this.

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