tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post8669939344742315568..comments2023-10-30T06:31:05.501-07:00Comments on MilPub: Intel BriefFDChiefhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-68672933285961791312012-09-04T02:40:03.439-07:002012-09-04T02:40:03.439-07:00BG, still waiting on an updated date. I'd pref...BG, still waiting on an updated date. I'd prefer to not do a hit-and-run chat between classes.Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-53001455735454722692012-09-03T08:08:01.546-07:002012-09-03T08:08:01.546-07:00" There are a couple of claims of hackers get..." There are a couple of claims of hackers getting kidnapped for use by the Cartels (mostly for cybercrime, but I suspect for some Computer Network Defense as well after the Anonymous run in)."<br /><br />Or hire.Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-67149040380937057692012-09-02T19:26:32.243-07:002012-09-02T19:26:32.243-07:00I tried the link, but the video on the link didn&#...I tried the link, but the video on the link didn't work. I will try to find another link to the video somewhere, looks interesting.bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-44210875453328125052012-09-01T06:06:45.445-07:002012-09-01T06:06:45.445-07:00The long day sucks. You tell me what afternoon wor...The long day sucks. You tell me what afternoon works for you. I'll just meet you in the student lounge.Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-7223358040391920672012-08-30T18:25:58.311-07:002012-08-30T18:25:58.311-07:00You might like this BG:
http://www.lowyinterprete...You might like this BG:<br /><br />http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/08/29/Interview-Dr-Jennifer-Simms-on-intelligence.aspx<br />Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-8061570918021829352012-08-30T06:41:14.028-07:002012-08-30T06:41:14.028-07:00Thanks all, keep the ideas coming, if you see some...Thanks all, keep the ideas coming, if you see something, throw it out there. Right now, I am leaning in a couple of directions:<br /><br />1.(my least preferred COA) Anything to do with India is a hot topic right now, I have no idea what specific question I will work, but something to do with India's cyber capability is interesting, especially if I can somehow tie it to a recommendation of how we can partner with them against a common foe (China).<br /><br />2. (my preferred COA, but not sure where to go with it) I am not confined to Cyber, I can work anything in the Information Operations realm. I've been reading a lot about Mexican drug cartels lately, and their use of I/O (psych-ops) is extensive. There are a couple of claims of hackers getting kidnapped for use by the Cartels (mostly for cybercrime, but I suspect for some Computer Network Defense as well after the Anonymous run in). It would be easy to talk about the Mexican Cartels' use of I/O to include exploitation of social media (both the cartels' and Mexicans fighting the cartels are using social media against each other), but I just don't know what angle I can take, what theory I can propose. <br /><br />3. (Best Plan B I got, should be easy to sell) Iranian activities in Mexico. DNI Clapper made statements that Iran is working in Mexico, specifically with the cartels. I am considering doing a study of other Iranian proxy groups (Hezbollah, for example), and using these historical examples as a model to predict how the Iranians might use the Mexican cartels. This might be easiest to sell, I could take a position of whether or not this interaction will be successful and pose a threat to the US, and in what way.<br /><br />bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-84289820169822219822012-08-30T06:23:52.091-07:002012-08-30T06:23:52.091-07:00Jeremy, if you are talking to me about Tuesday, th...Jeremy, if you are talking to me about Tuesday, that is fine, but it will have to be at 2. That is my long day, 2 x 3 hour classes.bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-37401061416057655402012-08-30T05:05:30.819-07:002012-08-30T05:05:30.819-07:00bg-
You commented: "My theory is that socia...bg-<br /><br />You commented: "My theory is that social networks, while an important tool, wasn't the primary driving force of change, it was just a catalyst (or maybe a medium for a catalyst to flow). I thought that would get some interest, but instead I got head nods of agreement. And also comments that it was "US involvement" that was the real bringer of change. That one kind of floored me as being a bit egocentric. But is also showed my idea that social media's impact wasn't as important as the media built it up to be was already an accepted concept, and therefore won't make an "interesting" thesis. "<br /><br />Reminds me of the "SMS Revolution" in Spain in March 2004. We had a Spanish exchange student staying with us. We all went out to eat in a local restaurant and she was receiving text msgs the whole time. We knew more about what was going on in Madrid than the BBC! Later, especially those of more authoritarian orientation were convinced the whole thing had been orchestrated by the Spanish Socialist Party . . . there had to be a "leader", people don't just "organize"! How even better when one's own side can take credit for orchestrating a coup! . . . of course how all this benefits the US is another matter . . . Anyway just a taste of the mindsets you're up against. Still room for a lot of maneuver from a strategic theory perspective though . . . seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-85819214832144711842012-08-30T03:50:19.204-07:002012-08-30T03:50:19.204-07:00Seydlitz,
I'm thinking Wylie's discussion...Seydlitz,<br /><br />I'm thinking Wylie's discussion of sequential/cumulative strategies could be interesting here, but it would bog down the thread. I'm jeremy.renken00@gmail.com. PM?Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-44696376807378719772012-08-30T03:48:24.934-07:002012-08-30T03:48:24.934-07:00Barry,
I hear your pain. How's next Tues to c...Barry,<br /><br />I hear your pain. How's next Tues to chat. I was able to get a pretty out-there topic approved. It was not a self-licking IC thesis. (A thesis by the IC, for the IC, about the IC.) I figured intelligence is meant to serve operators and policy makers, so it should inform policy and operations.Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-39888006765157075372012-08-30T03:46:00.898-07:002012-08-30T03:46:00.898-07:00PFK, thanks for the invite.
I think FD Chief was ...PFK, thanks for the invite.<br /><br />I think FD Chief was forwarding us Barry's info, rather than pursuing another Master's lambskin.Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-314654237308708602012-08-30T00:02:51.529-07:002012-08-30T00:02:51.529-07:00Barry, Master's Thesises and similar works are...Barry, Master's Thesises and similar works are not really meant to push mankind forward with research. They're exercises to train the student in scientific methods, thought and independent work.<br />Professors keep that in mind and they like topics that either interest them personally or that they're already familiar with (less work for them).S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-50440506006693857642012-08-30T00:02:40.499-07:002012-08-30T00:02:40.499-07:00FDChief,
I think your instructors are being somew...FDChief,<br /><br />I think your instructors are being somewhat shortsighted in their desire to flush out the whole 'cyber' topic.<br /><br />Just consider this latest example of a 'cyber attack'<br />http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/08/apple-amazon-mat-honan-hacking/<br /><br />You read this fairly elaborate 'hack' and at the end you discover that there was almost zero coding required. This is almost entirely possible through knowledge of systems and that, I think, is where the true danger of cyber exists. It bleeds really quickly into a physical realm and vice versa. When a box tells us something, we believe it and when you go through the rules and procedures, you feel like you did your job, but cyber can and do manipulate those realities.<br /><br />Understanding the supporting systems surrounding a computer network is critical to securing or compromising it.<br /><br />Another idea that I think should (hopefully will) take on greater emphasis is second-strike capacity in the cyber realm. As of right now, it is very unclear (AFAIK) if a country could retaliate against a broad and effective cyber attack against both systems and infrastructure. In theory when combined with a physical attack, you could possibly setup a scenario where a war would be won even before it was started.<br /><br />This would essentially negate the entire MAD world that had been in effect since the 50s. Use-it-or-lose-it might become the strategy that world leaders take to heart rather than deterrence. Imagine how much messier Pakistan-India relations get. Just consider the Cuban Missile Crisis if Russia and the US had possessed the ability to so completely cripple one another's C2 that someone could have theoretically launched a nuclear war and won.<br /><br />The cyber pandora's box has no upside whatsoever except perhaps to call attention to the fact that China is stealing so much information and digital 'wealth' that a Senator called it "the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world." That also is in an interesting topic.<br />http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/cyber-war-against-u-s-china-involved-in-the-greatest-transfer-of-wealth-in-the-history-of-the-world_12222011<br /><br />PF Khans<br /><br />PS Good to see you at the pub, Jeremy.PF Khanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10026548586309194505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-22122823458175146022012-08-29T10:07:50.765-07:002012-08-29T10:07:50.765-07:00"I still haven't gotten this sold to my p..."I still haven't gotten this sold to my professors because they consider this more of a Human Resources problem with some intelligence supporting the argument, and not truly an intelligence problem. "<br /><br />If I were in charge, they'd be assigned to Marines in Afghanistan on mine 'detection' detail.<br /><br />Not understanding the language(s) being used is a fundamental intelligence problem. <br /><br />Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-76682626778737490462012-08-29T06:49:08.474-07:002012-08-29T06:49:08.474-07:00bg,
Ok, so it looks like you are being forced to ...bg,<br /><br />Ok, so it looks like you are being forced to look at this in terms of assessing enemy capabilities and cannot consider how we might use cyber/IO to improve our own intel, is that right?<br /><br />If so, you're left with a descriptive analysis of current or future adversary capabilities and not much else except for Seydlitz's focus on strategy and theory.<br /><br />I think integration of cyber into Chinese tactical units is an interesting and relevant topic, but you're right it might be tough to find information and you'd probably have to use classified sources. You might expand it beyond China to look at trends in this area more generally. Israel is another country you could potentially focus on.<br /><br />Or you could come at it by looking at capabilities that aren't exclusive to states. That's an interesting aspect of cyber in that it doesn't necessarily require the resources available only to nation-states. Just one example I ran across this week a site called flightradar24.com. Basically it tracks aircraft in real time and provides all sorts of information. They publish a phone app with an augmented reality feature - point your phone's camera at an aircraft in the sky and the app will overlay information about the aircraft onto the image. Extrapolate this out ten or 20 years and this tech could go to some pretty cool and scary places.<br /><br />Just as an aside regarding social media, there is more to it than it's potential role in organizing or enabling revolution. It's also a great source of information for an intel guy or interested civilians. I follow several blogs that, for instance, compile and analyze cell phone video and images coming out of Syria and, previously, Libya. In Libya rebels were sending out coordinates for Gaddafi forces on twitter to @Nato hoping for an airstrike. This kind of thing brings up a lot of interesting possibilities but it doesn't look like your professors will let you look at them because that would be about "us." Too bad!<br /><br />There are also some interesting issues as civilian tech increasingly becomes valuable in conducting military operations. If an enemy's internet, for example, is simultaneously used to support military forces, provide civilian comms, and maintain essential civilian services (things like virtual medicine), how does one go about attacking only the military portion? Traditionally we simply bombed comm nodes to bring down the military comm network, but that's not so easy with an integrated system.<br /><br />Anyway, given your limfacs, I think what Seydlitz proposes is a really good option. It would be relevant, it would let you do something a bit outside of your tactical comfort zone, you should be able to keep it unclassified, there is already a lot of literature on strategic theory, and you'd have an expert here at the pub to consult!<br />Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-82565229952329918972012-08-28T18:52:54.736-07:002012-08-28T18:52:54.736-07:00Next week works. Let me know when you will be in ...Next week works. Let me know when you will be in the building.bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-68822762151094862132012-08-28T18:01:13.703-07:002012-08-28T18:01:13.703-07:00How about "There's an App for that: Explo...How about "There's an App for that: Exploiting Foreign Intelligence Targets with Smart Devices"<br /><br />Creating apps and resources focused on intel users. When someone downloads your paper from the NIU, a pdf exploit checks for geo and goes to town. Agencies with all those mathematicians start writing apps - obscure dictionaries, translation tools, big data filtering tools...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-35307139095926305302012-08-28T17:50:17.618-07:002012-08-28T17:50:17.618-07:00BG
There's a lot there, but Jim At Ranger is ...BG<br /><br />There's a lot there, but Jim At Ranger is right, you need to focus down. Manageability is key. WRT your concerns that the ground has somehow already been ploughed, I don't think its true. Frankly, the IC seemed pretty content to assume they knew what was happening and leave it at that. <br /><br />I agree that social media didn't enable Twitter to crowd source a revolution, but it did allow an avowed anti-government group to orchestrate in a virtual domain IOT bring forth coordinated actions in the real-world. That's a big deal.<br /><br />How's next week?Jeremy Renkenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17596927625645184950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-78529612650696323322012-08-28T16:16:38.887-07:002012-08-28T16:16:38.887-07:00This isn't really my area but Marcus Ranum had...This isn't really my area but Marcus Ranum had a good series of general posts over at fabiusmaximus.com a few days back that may give you some good ideas.Plutohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04036751798841079048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-49700767214717527672012-08-28T14:43:19.300-07:002012-08-28T14:43:19.300-07:00Yes, that is what I'm getting at. But you nee...Yes, that is what I'm getting at. But you need to be clear on the general theory first so that you can apply and possibly expand on it . . .seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-33113991248503906282012-08-28T14:34:48.420-07:002012-08-28T14:34:48.420-07:00Beware of ...
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schum...Beware of ...<br />http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/08/behavioral-biasS Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-72680693966448685862012-08-28T14:33:07.331-07:002012-08-28T14:33:07.331-07:00Note: I tried replying directly to threads above....Note: I tried replying directly to threads above. Maybe not the best technique, since you would have to look through all the old posts to see new ones, so I think I will stop doing that. (it seemed like a neat idea at first). So please look back at original posts.bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-70611427677502968762012-08-28T14:30:51.416-07:002012-08-28T14:30:51.416-07:00jim, I am not sure about that. How do you define ...jim, I am not sure about that. How do you define war? If a nation state sponsors the hacker to take down a power grid to cause economic damage because it helps the national interests of the attacking country, is that a form of covert action. I say yes. Is covert action a "war?" I think covert action can be a form of warfare, what did we used to call that, LIC? <br /><br />I think if we look at it through a lens of realism, it's all about self (or national) interests, than whether a cyber attack is done by a nation state as a act of war, or a criminal enterprise to seek economic profit, or even a lonely hacker looking to get some props in the underground hacking community, it is all the same from a defense perspective. Vulnerabilities must be protected against all the threats simultaneously. <br /> bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-88890127659162351912012-08-28T14:16:06.892-07:002012-08-28T14:16:06.892-07:00seydlitz, I really like this idea. I am not into ...seydlitz, I really like this idea. I am not into the nuts and bolts of the cyber world enough to be able to go into dolphin speak, I need to be able to stay at about 10,000 feet. I can see what is going on, but please don't ask me how it works. <br /><br />I like the idea of looking at past cyber attacks, applying it to basic warfare strategic theory (just to prove it is valid) and then apply it to a future conflict as a model. Is that what you are getting at?bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-17534558800064248852012-08-28T14:15:13.518-07:002012-08-28T14:15:13.518-07:00bg,
you need to focus-are u doing a war or a crime...bg,<br />you need to focus-are u doing a war or a crime or general scenario?<br />they're all different.<br />jimjim at rangerhttp://rangeragainstwar.comnoreply@blogger.com