tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post60700556611418391..comments2023-10-30T06:31:05.501-07:00Comments on MilPub: Interesting position on RussiaFDChiefhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-25395646031268923482014-09-14T10:59:39.054-07:002014-09-14T10:59:39.054-07:00bg- no haven't read or seen it, but that one s...bg- no haven't read or seen it, but that one snippet above should be plastered on billboards all across the US. Not that I think it would enlighten the population, but at least fulfill a moral obligation to try.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-14441864399956276822014-09-14T05:38:48.362-07:002014-09-14T05:38:48.362-07:00Al, have you seen/read Game of Thrones? One of m...Al, have you seen/read Game of Thrones? One of my favorites discussions is between the King's Hand (senior advisor) and one of the other advisors, they are discussing what should be done to avoid a war after the King dies. One advisor suggests making peace with a house the King's Hand is fueding with.<br /><br />King's Hand, "I will not make peace with them, they are my enemies."<br /><br />Advisor, "Who else would you make peace with if not your enemies? Otherwise it would not be called making peace."bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-77671307641881859862014-09-13T13:19:34.793-07:002014-09-13T13:19:34.793-07:00bg- hadn't thought of that. Silly me for thi...bg- hadn't thought of that. Silly me for thinking one speaks in concrete terms to get concrete results. However, a new fly is in the ointment - <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/12/isis-deal-syria_n_5814128.html" rel="nofollow">ISIS has come to an accord with several of the "moderate" rebel groups in Syria</a>.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-48054798747796434642014-09-13T05:27:28.538-07:002014-09-13T05:27:28.538-07:00Al, the POTUS is a smart man. He did not define w...Al, the POTUS is a smart man. He did not define what "degrade" or "destory" means. Therefore in 2 years, he can claim victory using whichever term he feels most appropriate. He can say "we were successful in degrading ISIL by reducing ...." He can later say, "we destroyed their ......." It gives him the chance to define victory after the fact. bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-66188408398883422962014-09-12T00:01:33.257-07:002014-09-12T00:01:33.257-07:00Ael- a coffee drinking buddy put it this way
The...Ael- a coffee drinking buddy put it this way<br /><br />There is no such thing as foreign policy. There is only domestic politics. The only votes that can be bought are ours.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-881678574801802582014-09-11T08:33:32.911-07:002014-09-11T08:33:32.911-07:00To a point, perhaps, but I'm not sure that it ...To a point, perhaps, but I'm not sure that it goes much beyond the whole "The Public (and the sort of politicians that pander to the idiot Public [cough...John McCain...cough, cough...] is an Ass" thing.<br /><br />Our commentor's point wasn't really addressing our fucktard policies so much as illustrating WHY we have fucktard policies. He was parroting the idiot notion that a bunch of rabid Sunni theocrats are going to come sneaking across the U.S.-Mexico border because our government (or perhaps just this administration, it was hard to tell...) is too "incompetent" to do...something. Build an intra-German border fence from San Diego to Padre Island. Deploy the 1st Armored Division to Brownsville. Carpet-bomb the State of Chihuahua. I have no idea, really (which was the point of my reply). <br /><br />But that was my problem; it seemed to me that he wasn't so much making the intellectual exertion of analyzing the situation in the Sunni Triangle as he seemed to be just falling in with the entire idea that the U.S. should "be prepared" to "do something" about these gomers. Whilst my point is that geopolitics is a little like medicine. If you don't have a GOOD option the <i>next best</i> option is to "do no harm" even if that means doing little or nothing but watching and waiting.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-41557166259934005642014-09-11T06:40:18.026-07:002014-09-11T06:40:18.026-07:00Think like a magician. What is going on with the ...Think like a magician. What is going on with the hand that you *don't* see.<br /><br />At this point, everything coming from Washington is coloured with upcoming election paint.<br /><br />Think locally and act globally!Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-26110018829884973432014-09-11T01:06:21.715-07:002014-09-11T01:06:21.715-07:00OK, I'll bite. The President aims to "de...OK, I'll bite. The President aims to "degrade and ultimately destroy" Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq. That effectively means eradicating a particular religious sect that has been growing in popularity and influence much as a result of US military adventures in the region for the past 11 years. Am I missing something here?Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-14908571722970032162014-09-10T23:09:01.269-07:002014-09-10T23:09:01.269-07:00mike - nothing really new versus what's runnin...mike - nothing really new versus what's running in the Western media. I read <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/" rel="nofollow">Ekathimerini</a> simply because they have a reasonably good English language edition. Unfortunately, their news reportage is somewhat digested and more focused on domestic issues in the English edition, but their translated editorials, cultural features and OpEds are not digested. Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-13821193874399903422014-09-10T22:01:21.237-07:002014-09-10T22:01:21.237-07:00Chief, in parts, I can see why you feel that way, ...Chief, in parts, I can see why you feel that way, but in my opinion, low tech...and it is what it is...a tempest in a tea pot, has a tendency to build pressure on neighboring communities/states. And then the teapot becomes a boiler under strain.<br /><br />I'm neither cheerleading a "BOOTS AND SADDLES, BOYS, WE'RE GONNA GET US SOME!" or saying "hey, bombs, bombs, everywhere you look, bombs!"<br /><br />Because both have been tried in that region and it's for shit. However, when it came to "Well, should we arm the Syrian rebels or not?" I was definitely one of those, "Holyfuckmeareyouseriouslydicussingthis?!?!?!?" <br /><br />I think, part and parcel of our governments problem is that they see a problem, they know it's a problem, and that the potential for this problem to totally fuckup their world view is pretty significant...but they really just don't know how to think it out.<br /><br />So, fuck it, do something for something sake...at least it looks like America is doing "something."<br /><br />I wouldn't under estimate ISIS...they got more than just kinetics...their a clever batch of neanderthals, and they have an idea of where they want to be, and what they want it to look like...and in truth...it's far more than what our Government has going for it.<br /><br />SheerahkahnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-57702428164607577872014-09-10T16:55:33.596-07:002014-09-10T16:55:33.596-07:00Al - what is the latest in the Athens press re the...Al - what is the latest in the Athens press re the Ukraine? Or can you recommend an English language Greek news website?mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-86089205730950957512014-09-10T14:03:09.613-07:002014-09-10T14:03:09.613-07:00Chief- I would suggest that our unwillingness to ...Chief- I would suggest that our unwillingness to understand Russia is the same as our unwillingness to understand the Middle East and Mexico. Simplistic, ideological solutions to vastly more complex issues. So it's really not going OT when addressing our fucktard policies. Brute force is not the answer to every perceived problem, but it is very attractive, as it requires little or no intellectual exertion. Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-57988393125387281012014-09-10T06:58:57.786-07:002014-09-10T06:58:57.786-07:00Given the U.S. government's obsession with the...Given the U.S. government's obsession with the Middle East I can't imagine that there is a single defense or intelligence agency that isn't "prepared" for just about anything and everything that might come out of that benighted region up to and including the Mosaic plagues. I think you can sleep easy if that's your concern.<br /><br />However, my point is that your actual statement was "I think IS will only be a regional threat until they are comfortable where they are, then, they'll focus on spreading their reach and influence. They've claimed they're going to destroy us. I believe they'll try..." and THAT was the basis for my reply. IMO we've seen entirely too much of this "They claim they're going to destroy us" as an excuse for doing extremely stupid things in the Middle East. At this point there are all sorts of people - many of them the same fucking idiots that claimed that knocking off the secular dictator of an impoverished and rabidly-sectarian former Ottoman semi-failed state was going to unleash a new birth of freedom in the Middle East - advocating similar stupid things because of these raggedy-assed gomers. What I'm recommending is that we pull up our big-boy panties and stop doing those stupid things, as they only make things worse.<br /><br />As a side note - since we're already WAY off-topic on Russia, which is the title of this post - the "current government" (are we talking Kenyan Usurper here..? Just curious.) doesn't seem any less competent than the Cheney or Clinton Administrations during which the massive drug-fueled instability in Mexico and Central America exploded, or the Bush I, Reagan, Carter, Ford...on back to the Wilson Administrations and beyond that all helped facilitate (or were, at least, largely indifferent to) the underdevelopment and instability of the region that helps drive the flow of people from Central America to El Norte.<br /><br />This is a whole 'nother topic in itself, but if you look hard at The Border I think you'll see a geopolitical problem nearly unique in human history; a huge, wealthy empire with an immense, nearly indefensible land border with a desperately poor, nearly ungovernable polity with which it is notionally at peace. The European enclaves in North Africa are as close as I can come to an analogue and they're a similar sort of hot mess. To be "competent" (by which I assume you mean stemming the flow of maids, landscapers, busboys, and interant carpenters from south to north) would involve a combination of economic and geopolitical steps nearly unprecedented in U.S. history and ones that have a real possibility of setting up a semi-state-of-war with the regional South. Conversely, U.S. actions that would stem that flow at the source would involve an investment in political and economic capital in improving social and political conditions in Central America and Mexico that would dwarf the Marshall Plan even assuming they would or could be successful.<br /><br />So...I do not think that word "incompetent" means what you think it means. Or means anything at all, in the context of La Frontera.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-43961850062981234582014-09-09T12:23:15.103-07:002014-09-09T12:23:15.103-07:00BTW, I don't disagree with your assessment, no...BTW, I don't disagree with your assessment, nor am I advocating a new military campaign.<br /><br />I just like being prepared is all. I think they'll try something eventually, and I think our current government's huge level of incompetence (especially in regards to the southern border of the US) provides them a prime opportunity to accomplish something.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04441655275405547437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-84614036195786250392014-09-09T06:58:17.292-07:002014-09-09T06:58:17.292-07:00I think the thing that will monkey-wrench their &q...I think the thing that will monkey-wrench their "plans", Levi, is that I don't see any point in the near future where they ARE "comfortable where they are". They're such xenophobic Sunni extremist bastards that the Iranians will never let them alone. If they ever DO get close to regional power-projection the Israelis will start pounding their asses, too (the thing that makes me skeptical of the claims for their power and influence even among the jihadi groups is the degree to which the Israelis HAVE left them alone. The Mossad and the IDF are the most paranoid sonsofbitches around - not without some reason - and they jump on the neck of any Islamic organization they find truly scary. They looked down from the Golan Heights for a couple of years on the hot mess that was the Syrian rebellion with a cat-smile of satisfaction...which tells me that they have these jokers sussed out as all kaffiyah/no goats...<br /><br />So the value of running a stand-alone US campaign against these gomers seems far too likely to produce little but blowback in return for negligible gains. We'd be better off leaning on the goddamn Saudis to close their madrassis and cut off the funding to the damn Sunni muj.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-49663990932442969922014-09-08T20:06:38.624-07:002014-09-08T20:06:38.624-07:00And as for the other Sunni's not following the...And as for the other Sunni's not following them, I think its because they think the conditions for the Caliphate have not been met. I haven't heard anything about the violence being too great, just that they were poser caliphaters. I also heard a BBC report that interviewed some small taliban group in Afghanistan that said if IS met a few more requirements ofthe caliphate, they would go join them.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04441655275405547437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-16004439745118388232014-09-08T20:02:19.261-07:002014-09-08T20:02:19.261-07:00I think IS will only be a regional threat until th...I think IS will only be a regional threat until they are comfortable where they are, then, they'll focus on spreading their reach and influence.<br /><br />They've claimed they're going to destroy us. I believe they'll try, even if they're the typical incompetent Arab fighters. I was in Iraq for 16 months with 2CAV, and I have no worries of their military 'might'.<br /><br />However, the southern border that has more holes than closed sections of it will let them casually saunter right through with whatever weapons they feel like bringing. And if they're caught, they'll just claim they fear for their lives in *insert random central american country name here* and the CPB will buy them bus tickets to wherever they wanna go.<br /><br />That's what I'm worried about.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04441655275405547437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-87431453679255253172014-09-08T10:01:37.587-07:002014-09-08T10:01:37.587-07:00Haha, sorry! I don't DISAGREE with anything y...Haha, sorry! I don't DISAGREE with anything you guys said. I can't edit it, sorry!bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-57244885519448689962014-09-08T10:00:19.607-07:002014-09-08T10:00:19.607-07:00Al, FDC, I don't agree with anything you guys ...Al, FDC, I don't agree with anything you guys said.<br /><br />Al, how about they are both, a regional terror threat AND a theocratic political movement. Let's not forget, they've been car bombing Baghdad for years. Threat is defined as capability plus intent. ISIL intent to attack the US in the US is well established, but their capability to date has not been proven. The threat of US born jihadis going to Syria and coming home is not new, it's been happening for years in Somalia, and we've done a decent job of tracking them and keeping them from coming home without eyes on. <br /><br />I think the concern of the administration is that we allow another FATA/sanctuary to be created. I agree with all of your points about geopolitics above, the context of history and who drew the maps. I also agree it is a Middle East problem to solve. However.... From the optic of politicians in the US, the fear is that on their watch, an attack will happen against US interests that was planned in ISIL sanctuary. Therefore there has to at least be political perception of "dealing" with the problem. So who is to blame? The politicians for giving in to fear, or the media for pushing the politicians to act and for the zero defect atmosphere that is the US media and politics?bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-67264046302675883092014-09-08T09:44:27.502-07:002014-09-08T09:44:27.502-07:00Which reiterates my point; if there IS a "sol...Which reiterates my point; if there IS a "solution" to these jokers it has to come from within the Middle East. The U.S. can't "defeat" the IS any more than the Spanish could "defeat" the Dutch rebellion in the 16th Century. We can kill people and break shit, but the experience of 2003-2010 shows how useless that is.<br /><br />And, to my mind, worse; fighting religious wars tends to bring out the worst theocratic impulses in the people who fight them. So lining up against Muslim theocrats - in the sense of actively making war on them - will inevitably tend to yank our own theocrats out of the woodwork. Not somewhere I want to go, thanks!FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-417555126666625882014-09-08T09:40:43.667-07:002014-09-08T09:40:43.667-07:00Here's the thing about these guys, bg; they DO...Here's the thing about these guys, bg; they DO represent, in their ridiculously-nostalgic-for-the-8th-Century way, the Sunni Arab parts of "Iraq" and "Syria" (which, we need to keep reminding ourselves, are really 20th Century fictions, notional borders thrown down to make European colonial maps simpler.<br /><br />So why the hell would either the Kurdish or Shia portions of this region WANT to "retake" northwestern and western "Iraq"? They have no constituency there. The whole damn reason this hot mess boiled over is that in the zero-sum politics of the Middle East the Sunni only had two choices; fight, or surrender. That these IS mooks turned out to be their instrument of warfare sucks for those Sunnis who don't long for the glory days of the Just Caliphs (or the poor bastards like the Yazidis who will be slaughtered as infidels) but is really neither unexpected nor a real, direct, existential threat to the West.<br /><br />And, you'll note, as a fighting force the IS ain't all that such of a muchness. Sure, they ran off the sad-sack IA - but NOT from the non-Sunni parts of the joint. They pushed the Peshmerga out of the Sunni flatlands but have had zero success moving into the Kurdish hills or past the Jordanian border.<br /><br />Right now we have no proof that an IS in western Iraq and eastern Syria would be anything more than what it is now; a bunch of raggedy-assed theocrats hunkered down in one of the poorest wastelands on Earth. Seriously; there's just no there there. This is a bunch of Cheneyite dead-enders looking for a <i>casus belli</i>. Throwing airstrikes at technicals is what the Brits used to call "breaking windows with guineas"; not worth the effort.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-1018246989975950452014-09-08T05:59:48.260-07:002014-09-08T05:59:48.260-07:00bg You call ISIS a "regional terror threat&q...bg You call ISIS a "regional terror threat". Wouldn't a "theocratic political movement" be more like it? They are trying (and in bits and chunks succeeding) to create an ultra-conservative religious state. They just have a different idea of what the national borders should be. They may be ruthless in applying their version of "law", but they do seem to have a "law" to apply, and as you note, a wide base of adherents, to include westerners. <br /><br />Perhaps there is a parallel here to a comment a friend in St Petersburg made in 1992 to us - "Gorbachev failed because he was not enough of a thug. We Russians are most comfortable when ruled by thugs. Imperial thugs, Communist thugs. Simply a polity difference for the glory of Mother Russia."<br /><br />ISIS is a movement for the heart of Islam as well as territory. Perhaps the Muslim world longs for a thug for the glory of "Mother Califate"? In this case, a thug that also has the keys to "heaven"? I mean, if you are going live like shit no matter how you slice it, then why not do so to be a king in the next life? You can't view these folks with a Western Christian "God's reward is on Earth" mentality. Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-78407024311125107132014-09-08T04:27:52.038-07:002014-09-08T04:27:52.038-07:00FDC, I think with ISIL, you have to throw out ever...FDC, I think with ISIL, you have to throw out everything we think we know about how Sunni organizations work. This isn't AQ, but they are also not the Muslim Brotherhood or Hamas. Fact is, we don't know what they are capable of just yet, so I am not going to underestimate their capabilities or intentions just yet. I disagree with the way the POTUS is playing down ISIL. No other regional terror threat has had so many westerners as part of their ranks. Not saying we should declare terror threat alert red or orange or whatever color corresponds with "oh shit" but I am saying let's not treat these guys like just another group. They have demonstrated success, something you can't say about many other groups. <br /><br />As far as what is next, expect to see the POTUS announce a 2-3 year strategy. Build up the Iraqi and Kurd forces so they can retake northern Iraq. This is a pipe dream. Remember how hard it was for US Marines to take a small piss ant town in Anbar called Fallujah? Mosul is no Fallujah, and the ISIL are digging in. By the time the ISF is ready for the great offensive, that will be supported by coalition airpower, the city will be somewhere between Fallujah (+) and Stalingrad (-). <br /><br />This whole situaiton is a lose-lose. Right now the biggest beneficaries of our actions are 1. Assad, 2. Iran. But if we did nothing, there is no doubt that ISIL's region (which would include Syria, Iraq, and eventually Jordan) would become late 90's Afghanistan. Probably still heading that direction based on the limited support and extended timeline that is currently being planned. Of course, if we did nothing, Iran would be expending all of its resources against an existential threat, and Iran would be conducting more strikes (yes, more, they are conducting strikes to accompany brigades of Badr Corps, Quds Force in country). One thing Iran wouldn't be doing is protecting Assad right now. <br /><br /> Lose-lose. bgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-65004183553646526342014-09-07T17:53:11.934-07:002014-09-07T17:53:11.934-07:00I agree with you Chief, except that IS is a spear ...I agree with you Chief, except that IS is a spear pointed towards Saudi Arabia.<br /><br />But, it is their problem and not ours.Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-10639434054169191572014-09-07T11:50:15.037-07:002014-09-07T11:50:15.037-07:00The Saudis ARE Wahhabi; that's one of the bigg...The Saudis ARE Wahhabi; that's one of the biggest problems in the region. A lot of the toxicity that came out of Afghanistan in the Eighties had a lot to do with the Saudis using their madrassis to train the guys who went to fight with the muj. The appeal of IS is less one of strict Wahhabism than their appeal to the sorts of Muslims who yearn for the 8th Century. That's a pretty limited appeal, as demonstrated by the fact that even in western Iraq a lot of the people in places like Fallujah who are happy to fight Baghdad aren't happy to do it as IS troops.<br /><br />My problem with this article is this:<br /><br /><i>"And here is the difficulty with evolving U.S. policy, which seems to be one of "leading from behind" again -- and looking to Sunni states and communities to coalesce in the fight against ISIS (as in Iraq with the Awakening Councils)."</i><br /><br />You'll note the article provides nothing as an alternative to this. Because there really IS no alternative to this - other than cutting ties with the region altogether. The U.S. has nothing to offer the Saudis that they want or are willing to accept other than "leading from behind". The ostensibly secular U.S. is an anathema to most Saudis, and few, if any, would respond to any other U.S. approach.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.com