tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post5462481497034988101..comments2023-10-30T06:31:05.501-07:00Comments on MilPub: Sick man?FDChiefhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-35142393117952873972013-06-13T18:32:03.040-07:002013-06-13T18:32:03.040-07:00To be honest, I believe it makes sense to distingu...To be honest, I believe it makes sense to distinguish between republics and democracies. Some republics are simply not democratic. The electoral college + the senate + the withdrawal of voting rights from felons in the U.S. don't pass a smell test, the weighing of votes in EU parliament elections doesn't, and the 10% barrier for parties to enter the Turkish parliament doesn't either.<br />Germany has a 5% barrier, and that's already too high in my opinion.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_thresholdS Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-13409608671318457132013-06-12T12:10:05.654-07:002013-06-12T12:10:05.654-07:00@FDChief: "The Army was the bedrock of Kemal...@FDChief: <i>"The Army was the bedrock of Kemalist Turkey."</i><br /><br />Which is why Erdogan has been trying to blacken the reputation of Kemal Ataturk. During the recent debates on the regulation of Alcohol, he (Erdogan) '<i>explicitly linked the bill to Islamic law and indirectly accused secular republican hero Ataturk of being a “drunkard”</i>'.<br /><br />http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/op-eds/hugh-pope-erdogan-can-win-by-engaging-turkeys-park-protesters.aspx mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-31192627261657919212013-06-09T18:56:07.163-07:002013-06-09T18:56:07.163-07:00I have to say that from what I can see he has a go...I have to say that from what I can see he has a good take on the situation. The whole "Taksim = Tahrir" meme seems overblown, and as you point out, Turkey still has a perfectly functional democracy. If Erdogan needs to go all the opposition needs to do is vote him and his party out.<br /><br />Dyer hits on a good point; that perhaps the last big electoral win made Erdogan and other more-islamic types within the AKP forget that while the country as a whole may be "muslim" that the seculars and the less-than-conservative-muslims can't just be tossed aside. The Turkish Way - islamic rule without the islamic social rules - depended on him NOT forgetting that.<br /><br />Hopefully these protests have the same result as 1968, and help pull Turkey back from the more autocratic aspects of AKP rule...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-41731533897854365032013-06-09T16:48:17.965-07:002013-06-09T16:48:17.965-07:00Gwynne Dyer claims that what we are seeing is much...Gwynne Dyer claims that what we are seeing is much like <a href="http://www.straight.com/news/389306/gwynne-dyer-paris-1968-istanbul-2013" rel="nofollow">the Paris riots</a>Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-58175695695981186852013-06-04T18:33:29.063-07:002013-06-04T18:33:29.063-07:00I think the other big questions here are:
1. How...I think the other big questions here are:<br /><br />1. How much of this is against Erdogan the man versus the AKP's policies?<br /><br />2. How thoroughly will the police carry out the PM's orders if this IS about Erdogan the man? Are they effectively loyal to him so long as he is in power (i.e. they are loyal to the principle of popular sovereignty) or will they fight to KEEP him in power, loyal to the man not the post?<br /><br />The first suggests that firing Erdogan might calm things down and allow the AKP to get on with business. The second suggests that they might want to find out most quick smart who the police will back; if the AKP turfs out Erdogan and puts a new man in the premiership will the coppers smoothly transfer their loyalty to the New Guy? FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-48917296934801136362013-06-04T18:25:05.055-07:002013-06-04T18:25:05.055-07:00basil: I tend to agree that this hasn't shown ...basil: I tend to agree that this hasn't shown Erdogan in a flattering light. But I think that it's also worth noting that the CHP has been involved (tho I don't believe that they "provoked" the protests. And the whole "linked to terrorists" thing, well, I can't think of a U.S. politician that wouldn't be in a pot-kettle position about that.<br /><br />Again, I get a strong sense that this is evolving into a urban seculars vs rural religious as well as a battle between the people who lost out in the AKP <i>wirtschaftwunder</i> - the unions, some minorities, the working class - and the "new men" of the recent boom...<br /><br />How critical it is would seem to tie back to how deep, and how ugly, those fissures are...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-1020774797602671752013-06-04T13:34:09.007-07:002013-06-04T13:34:09.007-07:00Juan Cole
http://www.juancole.com/2013/06/defiant...Juan Cole<br /><br />http://www.juancole.com/2013/06/defiant-turkish-economy.html<br /><br /><br /><b>The news that Turkey’s Public Workers Unions Confederation (KESK), representing coalition of 11 trade unions with 250,000 members has now announced a two-day general strike in sympathy with the protesters signals the entry of an element of class conflict into the movement. The unions in Turkey are weak, having been destroyed by the secular right wing military dictatorship of the 1980s, which had the side effect of also destroying the Turkish Left as a viable political bloc. The ruling center-right Justice and Development Party probably benefited in implementing its pro-market policies from the weakness of unions. The unions and the remains of the Left may see an opportunity for revival.<br /><br />Erdogan has blamed everyone but himself for the public discontent, decrying the ‘lies’ spread on Twitter, hinting darkly that the opposition party, the secular Republican People’s Party [CHP] had conspired to provoke the protests, and now even saying that the demonstrators are ‘linked to terrorists.’<br /><br />Erdogan’s theory of what is happening shows an unflattering streak of paranoia and arrogance, and, worse, it is clearly wrong. If a prime minister cannot understand what is happening in his own country, it is a very bad sign.</b><br /><br /><br />bbAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-75658873538759773622013-06-03T06:15:48.636-07:002013-06-03T06:15:48.636-07:00basil: That's good information. What was real...basil: That's good information. What was really news to me was Marshall's comment that <i>"On a separate front, Erdogan seems to have broken the back of the military’s political power. Vast numbers of high-ranking military officers are now on trial or awaiting trial for conspiring the overthrow the government."</i> I knew about the trials - I even posted about that here two years ago, but not that anyone - especially someone outside Turkey - was saying opening that it had neutered the Army was a force in Turkish politics.<br /><br />That really does make a huge difference here. The Army was the bedrock of Kemalist Turkey. And it was Kemalism, and probably ONLY Kemalism that kept Turkey from becoming a more openly Islamic state, as Erdogan has been doing lately.<br /><br />If there really is little likelihood that the Army will come out to "stabilize" the nations then Marshall's Turkish correspondant's assessment is spot on; <i>"If this continues like it did yesterday, then it’s a Big Thing that will have further ramifications, but if people start trailing away from the protests because they heard reports that the police opened Taksim and Gezi Parkı back up again, then I think this will just be a blip on the screen."</i><br /><br />And at this point we don't know. We'll just have to watch and wait. FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-20763752938991349252013-06-03T06:03:29.376-07:002013-06-03T06:03:29.376-07:00Sven: I'm not sure if this is a sign of "...Sven: I'm not sure if this is a sign of "instability" or not - as you say, it does seem very like what we see elsewhere in Europe. But the protestors themselves are using the comparisons to Tahrir Square in Egypt and that parallel has been used in several of the news reports I read.<br /><br />I think the critical factor is whether the Army a) SEES the protests as leading to potential instability and b) have a leader or leaders ready to move to "show a firm hand". At this stage in Turkish politics I suspect that would not be a good thing; my understanding is that the AKP was elected in large part for their promise to push the Army out of Turkish politics. If the Army was to come in now with a shout I can't see how that would end well...<br /><br />But, frankly, I'm also not sure HOW this ends. It might just turn out to be a Turkish version of Occupy Istanbul that just farkles around and goes away. My main point was ti simply point this out as something that seems fairly important and yet is getting little attention in the U.S. media...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-63905329419845467652013-06-03T01:07:10.939-07:002013-06-03T01:07:10.939-07:00Josh Marshall has a bit on it
http://talkingpoint...Josh Marshall has a bit on it<br /><br />http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/06/whats_happening_in_turkey.php?ref=fpblg<br /><br /><br />"But after a decade, Erdogan’s rule has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn. And there have been more and more instances of the state imposing Islamist mores - things like restrictions on the consumption of alcohol, provocative sexuality and so forth."<br /><br />bbAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-31329788312509346752013-06-02T21:26:49.045-07:002013-06-02T21:26:49.045-07:00The AKP has dominated Turkish politics for many ye...The AKP has dominated Turkish politics for many years now. It's only natural that it shows some arrogance, overreach - and provokes counters.<br />Non-parliamentary opposition (demonstrations, radicalised groups etc.) is common in Europe and grows in stature if the parliamentary opposition is ineffective.<br /><br />I don't think stability or instability is the right framework for interpreting the events; instead, the events look surprisingly European.<br /><br />The only odd thing is that such riots happen during a phase of very rapid economic growth. <br />I suppose the still high youth unemployment rate may be a factor:<br />http://ycharts.com/indicators/turkey_youth_unemployment_rate_lfsS Ohttp://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.de/noreply@blogger.com