tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post7854334962002689952..comments2023-10-30T06:31:05.501-07:00Comments on MilPub: The Ukrainian Crisis, Some Questions from a Clausewitzian PerspectiveFDChiefhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-43978672640045804112014-03-13T10:37:02.715-07:002014-03-13T10:37:02.715-07:00In today's news:
If Moscow does not begin to ...In today's news:<br /><br /><i><b>If Moscow does not begin to "deescalate" the situation then, Merkel said the 28 European Union nations, the United States and other trans-Atlantic partners were prepared to take even stronger measures that would hit Russia economically.</b></i><br /><br />Interesting how Frau Merkel is suddenly the spokesperson for the EU, the US and "other trans-Atlantic partners".Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-75477906274902558702014-03-12T00:15:30.681-07:002014-03-12T00:15:30.681-07:00More insight. Do follow the author's links. ...<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/ukraine-and-west-hot-air-hypocrisy-crimea-russia" rel="nofollow">More insight.</a> Do follow the author's links. Interesting material.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-9604502197087792572014-03-11T15:48:21.498-07:002014-03-11T15:48:21.498-07:00Al-
That's why I like Corbert Report over the...Al-<br /><br />That's why I like Corbert Report over the other thingie . . .<br /><br />Still, scary times . . . where's this totally avoidable catastrophe going to end? . . . stay tuned.seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-31839544824784982472014-03-11T15:30:21.184-07:002014-03-11T15:30:21.184-07:00seydlitz-
Europe is not going to impose austerity...seydlitz-<br /><br />Europe is not going to impose austerity, but rather give billions in "no strngs attached" aid to Ukraine. Frau Merkel and Herr Schauble would never conscience making the general population suffer for the misdeeds of their government, would they?Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-49532641944076485292014-03-11T05:58:19.045-07:002014-03-11T05:58:19.045-07:00Al-
Interesting . . .
"From the moment that...Al-<br /><br />Interesting . . .<br /><br />"From the moment that Russians wearing ski masks and carrying automatic rifles arrived on Crimean streets, Putin alienated an entire generation of Ukrainians, the very people he needs to see the value of membership in a Russian-led political and economic union that might counterbalance the EU."<br /><br />I read this differently. It was the guys in ski masks in Kiev who made the initial and greatest error, or perhaps rather those who put up the $$$ behind them. Simply more political manipulation from "the deep state" . . .<br /><br />How do you think the Ukrainians will view the EU in the near future when austerity kicks in? seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-91840998362108607392014-03-11T01:27:49.306-07:002014-03-11T01:27:49.306-07:00Interesting OpEd in this morning's Greek newsp...<a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_10/03/2014_538036" rel="nofollow">Interesting OpEd</a> in this morning's Greek newspaper.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-26317380475866883632014-03-07T07:22:16.309-08:002014-03-07T07:22:16.309-08:00seydlitz-
Understanding the various "flavors...seydlitz-<br /><br />Understanding the various "flavors" of "Rus" is complex. My maternal family is from Belorus. For quite a while, I used the term "Russian" loosely, at least in the eyes of others of Rus extraction. Then, after mixing with various Rus groups as an adult, I found that "Russian" is not a one size fits all term, even amongst those from "geographic" Russia. I remember being corrected by a Moscovite to be more specific when calling someone who was Carpatho-Russian simply "Russian".<br /><br />Kissinger is the first one I have seen who has at least addressed the tip of this iceberg.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-45105586912920255332014-03-06T16:27:02.134-08:002014-03-06T16:27:02.134-08:00Al-
Thanks . . . perhaps strategy is simply about...Al-<br /><br />Thanks . . . perhaps strategy is simply about following a simple thread, that one thread . . . that allows it to all come together.<br /><br />You in the East and me in the West . . . as the whole thing crumbles . . . more or less . . . I try to be positive . . . ever new ideas strung forward . . . hoping some will take off . . . <br /><br />"Putin is a serious strategist" . . .<br /><br />That I agree with . . .seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-20709778033004080992014-03-06T14:17:46.483-08:002014-03-06T14:17:46.483-08:00Henry Kissinger's take on the subject
Also so...<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html" rel="nofollow">Henry Kissinger's take on the subject</a><br /><br />Also some links to other analyst's views at the bottom of the page.Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-30293336700030017532014-03-06T13:47:23.242-08:002014-03-06T13:47:23.242-08:00mike-
By all means keep an open mind. As to the ...mike-<br /><br />By all means keep an open mind. As to the Syrian gas attack and the link I provided . . . it didn't blame the rebels, but rather trashed US intel reporting . . .seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-24789540037046155602014-03-06T10:31:05.917-08:002014-03-06T10:31:05.917-08:00@seydkitz - 'Could the snipers have belonged t...@seydkitz - <i>'Could the snipers have belonged to the "revolutionaries"?'</i><br /><br />Maybe or maybe not. The right wing in the Ukraine is certainly capable enough and reprehensible enough to have committed this act. But 'Disinformatzia' was invented by the Russians. So I will keep my opinion open on this. <br /><br />And the Syrian gas attack being blamed on the rebels is open to interpretation. It is still considered 'disinformatzia by many. <br /><br />mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-77923927377913758602014-03-06T00:17:23.830-08:002014-03-06T00:17:23.830-08:00I'm surprised Putin hasn't mentioned propo...I'm surprised Putin hasn't mentioned <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_partition_proposals" rel="nofollow">proposals for the partitioning of various states in the US</a> over the past 10 - 20 years. While it is not necessarily a "sovereignty" issue, it does indicate an "American" predilection to drawing boundaries based on political party affiliation.<br /><br />Or perhaps he could mention the Koch Bros et. al., who spend millions to influence gubernatorial and other local elections in states where they are not legally resident nor entitled to vote.<br /><br />Wasn't something once said about "casting the first stone"?Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-7742366745014055572014-03-05T16:08:10.053-08:002014-03-05T16:08:10.053-08:00Another tape recording of a phone conversation has...Another tape recording of a phone conversation has come out . . . Could the snipers have belonged to the "revolutionaries"?<br /><br />http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/ <br /><br />Anybody else reminded of the Syrian gas attack back in August?<br /><br />http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/01/15/214656/new-analysis-of-rocket-used-in.html seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-35417679840784906792014-03-05T12:13:02.371-08:002014-03-05T12:13:02.371-08:00I wonder if the "transgressions" of the ...I wonder if the "transgressions" of the US and NATO will stay under the microscope long enough for people to see them for what they really were? Hopefully, a lesson might be learned?Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-35526075961856359842014-03-05T10:34:28.209-08:002014-03-05T10:34:28.209-08:00I think the blogosphere is starting to affect main...I think the blogosphere is starting to affect main street media. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/the-ukraine-crisis-through-the-whimsy-of-international-law-1.2559980" rel="nofollow">This </a> from the goverment owned CBC. Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-3920038322777567112014-03-05T04:24:19.232-08:002014-03-05T04:24:19.232-08:00Al-
I would agree as to economic power doing most...Al-<br /><br />I would agree as to economic power doing most of the heavy lifting in their strategy. Establishing control over the Crimea given the fluid situation, offense was the stronger form in this case than defense. This action also tested the Ukrainian military in various ways and provided plenty of rope for the "revolutionaries" to tie themselves up with as the situation develops. Doing this at the beginning of the interaction heavily influences all that follows . . . <br /><br />Given the material cohesion of the Ukrainian state and without the threat of Russian T-90As rolling through Kiev, I suspect that the "revolutionaries" may have difficulty just holding together . . . Nuland's $$$ notwithstanding . . . seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-46447029837748351422014-03-04T14:49:44.348-08:002014-03-04T14:49:44.348-08:00seydlitz: "Two thousand five is not 2014.&quo...seydlitz: <i><b>"Two thousand five is not 2014."</b></i><br /><br />In many more ways than one. You have to take into account that Russia is now much more of an economic power than in 2005. They are major investors in several countries. They are the principal source of natural gas for Europe. They are developing a significant middle class with significant discretionary income. For the past 4 years, Mediterranean tourist countries have been actively seeking Russian tourists. They spend 40 - 50% more per capita per day than cheap ass Western Europeans. It has become open public policy in the Maldives, for example, to try to replace Brit and German tourism with Russians. <br /><br />It ain't Russia's military power that is cowing Western Europe, it's their economic power. Aviator47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05585964386930142907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-91554025960433844222014-03-04T14:20:23.142-08:002014-03-04T14:20:23.142-08:00FD Chief-
"Sorry, but I gotta call bullshit ...FD Chief-<br /><br />"Sorry, but I gotta call bullshit on this one. He had lots of choices, including doing exactly what he did LAST time the Ukraine went through a "U.S.-engineered coup" in 2005 . . ."<br /><br />Two thousand five is not 2014. Different set up now and after what happened in Georgia in 2008? The release of the Nuland tape should have been enough to get the neocons to reconsider, but obviously it wasn't . . . so political context allowing for a quite different contingency and an act of by US standards of light military power . . . The move into the Crimea allows the Russians lots more advantages over time (both domestically and with the international audience he wishes to influence). In my view, you're calling the game two minutes into play . . . <br /><br />They can howl all they want in Cheneyville, it won't make that much of a difference . . . which is the political context that the US has gotten itself into . . .seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-2121848759399373342014-03-04T13:10:44.784-08:002014-03-04T13:10:44.784-08:00Chief -
Interesting re the Russky version of t...Chief - <br /><br />Interesting re the Russky version of the Monroe Doctrine. Especially if you consider that our Monroe Doctrine was in a large part triggered by the Russian Tsar. He issued an Ukase in 1821 forbidding foreign ships from entering Alaskan waters and soon after an American merchant ship was seized.<br /><br />One of Kerry's predecessors as Secretary of State, John Quincy Adams, stated at the time: <br /><br /><i>"But what right has Russia to any colonial footing on the continent of North America? And is it not time for the American Nations to inform the sovereigns of Europe, that the American continents are no longer open to the settlement of new European colonies."</i><br /><br />Per Walter McDougall's book on the north Pacific, 'Let the Sea Make a Noise', this was the first ever official enunciation of the principle later made famous by the Monroe Doctrine. <br /><br />Perhaps the Russkies are reading American history?mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-47754688783605677882014-03-04T12:40:50.743-08:002014-03-04T12:40:50.743-08:00And speaking of the old Soviet responses to upheav...And speaking of the old Soviet responses to upheavals in the Pact nations...<br /><br />One thing that is consistently frustrating about the public bloviating of the "great power" conservatives in the U.S. is the degree to which they either ignore or denegrate the degree to which Russia is invoking what is in effect their version of the Monroe Doctrine. <br /><br />Jim Hruska has consistently made this point in the comment section for the earlier Crimea open thread post and I think it's worth taking seriously.<br /><br />What would the U.S. do, for example, if what the federal government saw as a dangerous regime took power in a nearby polity? We don't even need to guess; it invaded Grenada in 1983, Panama in 1989, and spent most of the 80s supporting wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua on ground much the same as those which Russia is claming to be their rationale in this case.<br /><br />If you look even further back. one of the reasons the U.S. went to war in 1917 was evidence the Germany was canoodling with Mexico.<br /><br />So I understand WHY the "conservative" punditry is trying to gin up outrage about this. But ISTM that the most cursory look at U.S. history would show the massive fail in their "argument"...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-42546204290538422062014-03-04T12:30:49.190-08:002014-03-04T12:30:49.190-08:00"I don't think he had much choice regardi...<i>"I don't think he had much choice regarding standing up to what was seen in Russia as a US-engineered coup in Kiev. So preventive, not aggressive.</i>"<br /><br />Sorry, but I gotta call bullshit on this one. He had lots of choices, including doing exactly what he did LAST time the Ukraine went through a "U.S.-engineered coup" in 2005; patiently waiting for the Orange crowd to fuck up, applying political and economic pressure, and pushing the Ruthenians out again.<br /><br />This time he did choose to go with "aggressive". Agressive-defensive, if you will, but a more openly forceful response. It may very well be a "two-strikes" response - I played nice with you the first time, now you bastards get to see the mailed fist. But I disagree completely that what happened this time was either 1) "defensive" in nature or 2) a "reaction". His treatment of the Orange Revolution was a defensive reaction. This one is good old Great Power threatening; this is in the school of the tanks rolling into Budapest in '56. <br /><br />The old Tsars and the Soviet leaderships would have approved.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-7133929783242802972014-03-04T12:23:52.761-08:002014-03-04T12:23:52.761-08:00"So maybe his strategic thinking is way ahead...<i>"So maybe his strategic thinking is way ahead of ours?"</i><br /><br />Could be. OR not; he might be just responding to events opportunistically.<br /><br />Or he might even be thinking in ways that are too opaque for us sitting here - and I agree, again, with seydlitz that 1) it's very hard to suss out what's actually going on given the mutual level of propaganda and disinformation coming from both Ukraine and Russia - and his "strategy" is not what we think it is.<br /><br />I'd argue that at the moment things seem to be favoring the Russian "strategy", assuming it is what it looks like; the "West" is in disarray, the U.S. Right is largely utterly bugnuts making the U.S. government reaction - which so far has actually been fairly muted and rhetorical - seem more flailing and impotent that it actually is.<br /><br />But, again - one Ukrainian colonel losing his patience and this suddenly changes into something very different...<br /><br />I hate to sound like this - since there really IS a potential for people to get killed here - but I'm fascinated watching this play out as a living example of power politics.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-61122027415083394372014-03-04T11:58:38.539-08:002014-03-04T11:58:38.539-08:00mike-
Agree, Putin is not an imperialist (like Ch...mike-<br /><br />Agree, Putin is not an imperialist (like Cheney) and simply wishes to firmly reestablish Russia as a great power. He has been very consistent in this and has been very helpful to the US on various occasions. That of course doesn't seem to influence our actions, unfortunately . . .seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-34137571264283551962014-03-04T11:53:55.920-08:002014-03-04T11:53:55.920-08:00mike-
Yes, it is a very important city for the Ru...mike-<br /><br />Yes, it is a very important city for the Russians. I have an original Defense of Sevastopol medal in my collection of Soviet militaria, along with the awarding document. Has plenty of dings and scratches which is understandable given that it was awarded in 1943 and worn through the rest of the war. Similar to this one . . .<br /><br />http://collectrussia.com/DISPITEM.HTM?ITEM=27851<br /><br />Also agree with your comments on the World War II/SS history, since I have a lot of questions regarding these particular "revolutionaries", as indicated by this comment . . . "or who we pay to wield the axe handles in the streets) . . ." seydlitz89https://www.blogger.com/profile/15431952900333460640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-381917167978264683.post-43414279534004953692014-03-04T11:26:29.317-08:002014-03-04T11:26:29.317-08:00@FDChief: " - he could very well have playe...@FDChief: <i>" - he could very well have played a cautious power politics game. Warned Kiev under the table about moving troops into Crimea. Waited until Crimea voted for separation, then reunion with Russia. Played the "open arms" card to all Russian expats in Ukraine...the Ukrainians get to see the claws and the teeth, just when the Western press isn't looking so to the outsiders Russia is still the big, fluffy bear."</i><br /><br />IMHO Putin does not want the the Russian expats to come back to Mother Russia. With a large Russian speaking minority in the Ukraine, he can influence Ukrainian politics and policy. And he does not want Crimea reunited. He likes the staus quo. Time will tell on that one. <br /><br />He does no care about the bad press internationally. He is getting good press at home and in the eastern Ukraine. And he has sent a message to the other former SSRs. <br /><br />So maybe his strategic thinking is way ahead of ours?mikenoreply@blogger.com